中美摩擦复杂性超预期，A股高位回调

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock indices is "oscillation" [4] Core View of the Report - This week, global stock markets were divided, with developed markets strengthening while Chinese stock markets significantly declined with shrinking trading volume. The up - and - down market this week was a reaction to the escalation of tariff conflicts. Although US officials initially indicated that tariffs on China might not be imposed, subsequent hawkish statements from the US undermined the optimistic expectations. After the TACO trading, the stock market experienced a one - sided decline with trading volume shrinking below 2 trillion yuan. Looking ahead, it is recommended to be vigilant about the stock market. One should observe whether the trading volume continues to shrink and the content of the Fourth Plenary Session [2][10] Summary According to the Directory 1. One - Week View and Overview of Macro Key Events - Next - week View: Market liquidity is starting to decline. Pay attention to changes in the Fourth Plenary Session. Be vigilant about the stock market, observing trading volume changes and the content of the Fourth Plenary Session [10] - This - week Key Events: From October 13th to 17th, there were multiple events including Trump's hint of canceling new tariffs on China, China's export and import growth in September, policy issuances by the National Development and Reform Commission and the publication of relevant articles in "Qiushi" magazine, and international events such as the UK listing Chinese companies on the entity list [11][13][19] 2. One - Week Market Quotation Overview - Global Stock Market Weekly Overview: From October 13th - 17th, global stock markets denominated in US dollars rose. The MSCI Global Index increased by 1.20%, with developed markets (+1.38%) > frontier markets (+0.55%) > emerging markets (-0.30%). South Korea's stock market led the world with a 4.01% increase, while Singapore's stock market had the worst performance with a 3.97% decline [23] - Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview: From October 13th - 17th, Chinese equity assets declined significantly. In terms of different markets, Chinese concept stocks > A - shares > Hong Kong stocks. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2193.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 410.3 billion yuan compared to last week. All A - share sectors declined, with the Shanghai 50 Index falling 0.24% (the best - performing) and the STAR 50 Index falling 6.16% (the worst - performing) [26] - Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets: Most global GICS primary industries declined this week. The leading industry was real estate (+2.97%), and the poorly - performing industry was finance (-0.37%). In the Chinese market, the finance industry led with a 1.91% increase, while the information technology industry lagged with a 6.7% decline [29] - Weekly Overview of China A - share CITIC Primary Industries: This week, among A - share CITIC primary industries, 4 rose (18 last week) and 26 fell (12 last week). The leading industry was the banking industry (+4.99%), and the industry with the largest decline was the electronics industry (-7.10%) [32] - Weekly Overview of China A - share Styles: The large - cap value style was dominant [36] - Overview of Stock Index Futures Basis: Data on the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past 6 months are presented [39][42] 3. Overview of Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast - Broad - based Index Valuation: Data on PE, eight - year percentile, PE at the beginning of the year, PE change during the year, PB, eight - year percentile, PB at the beginning of the year, and PB change during the year of various broad - based indices such as the Shanghai 50 Index are provided [45] - Primary Industry Valuation: Data on PE, eight - year percentile, PE at the beginning of the year, PE change during the year, PB, eight - year percentile, PB at the beginning of the year, and PB change during the year of various primary industries such as the petroleum and petrochemical industry are provided [46] - Broad - based Index Equity Risk Premium: The ERP of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 increased slightly this week [47][49] - Broad - based Index Consensus Earnings Growth Rate: The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 was raised to 7.37% and to 8.56% in 2026; that of the CSI 500 in 2025 was raised to 32.05% and to 17.92% in 2026; the expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 1000 in 2025 was lowered to 37.39% and raised to 20.92% in 2026 [52] 4. Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking - Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: This week, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond declined, the 1 - year yield increased, and the spread narrowed. The US dollar index was 98.6, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.12 [60] - Trading - type Capital Tracking: This week, the average daily trading volume of northbound funds decreased by 49.7 billion yuan compared to last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 14.5 billion yuan compared to last week [62] - Tracking of Funds Flowing in through ETFs: There were 29 on - market ETFs tracking the CSI 300, 27 tracking the CSI 500, 15 tracking the CSI 1000, and 39 tracking the CSI A500. This week, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 210 million shares, that of those tracking the CSI 500 decreased by 210 million shares, that of those tracking the CSI 1000 increased by 70 million shares, and that of those tracking the CSI A500 decreased by 3.1 billion shares [65][66][69] 5. Tracking of Domestic Macro High - frequency Data - Supply Side: Crude steel production contracted, with data on blast furnace operating rates, coking enterprise operating rates, and domestic crude steel daily average production presented [72][73][75] - Consumption Side: Real estate transactions remained sluggish, with data on the transaction area of first - hand and second - hand houses in large and medium - sized cities, land transaction area, and passenger car wholesale sales growth rate presented. The crude oil price dropped to around $61 per barrel [80][81][89] - Inflation Observation: Agricultural product prices recovered, while the recovery of production material prices was weak [91][93]