集运指数（欧线）观点：宽幅震荡-20251019

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The view on the Container Shipping Index (European Line) for this week is wide - range fluctuations. It's necessary to pay more attention to supply - side changes, especially the shipping schedule delays from late November to December caused by port congestion in Europe, which potentially benefit the 2512 contract. The 2512 contract is recommended to be traded with a wide - range fluctuation strategy, and the 2602 contract can also be considered for low - buying opportunities, mainly through 02 - 04 positive spreads for rolling long positions [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Spot Freight and Spot Index Tracking - The average market freight for 43 weeks was 1108 dollars for 20GP and 1812 dollars for 40GP. The SCFIS European Line index on October 13th was 1031.80 points, and it's expected to be around 1100 points on October 20th. The freight of the PA alliance loosened in late October, falling to 1300 - 1500 dollars/FEU [12][14][15] Seasonal Freight Trends of Major Global Routes - The SCFI and NCFI show the seasonal freight trends of major global routes, including Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - Mediterranean, Shanghai - North America, etc [17][18][20] Demand Side China's Export Perspective - In September 2025, China's US - dollar - denominated export year - on - year growth rate rebounded to 8.2%. Exports to the EU, Africa, and ASEAN remained strong, with the year - on - year growth rate of exports to the EU rising to 14.2% [26] Asia's Export to Europe Perspective - From January to August 2025, the cumulative container trade volume from Asia to Europe (Northwest Europe + Mediterranean) was 13.18 million TEU, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.7% [4] Asia's Export to North America Perspective - In January 2025, the container trade volume from Asia to North America was 2.1188 million TEU, with a year - on - year increase of 8.2% [33] US Import Volume Weekly Tracking - The data shows the weekly container import volume of the US from the world, India, China, etc., updated to October 9th [36][37][38] Supply Side Supply Chain Risk Events - Events include the Middle East geopolitical situation, European port operation efficiency, and Southeast Asian extreme weather. For example, Tropical Storm "Ramil" may affect port operations in South China Sea areas [45][46][47] Shipping Schedule Table - The weekly average capacity in November remained around 300,000 TEU/week (excluding 2 pending voyages), with a month - on - month increase of 16.5% and a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. There are many pending voyages in December, and the capacity may be significantly revised later [4][50] Dynamic Capacity - In the past week, the speed of 8,000 - 11,999TEU container fleets was around 15 knots, and the idle capacity of 8 - 11,999TEU container fleets was 14 ships as of October 10th [59] Turnover Efficiency - Data shows the congestion situations of ports in China, the UK/Europe, the Mediterranean/Black Sea, Southeast Asia, North America, and Asia [61][63][65] Static Capacity - In the past three months, the top ten liner companies received new 12,000+TEU container ships, with some deployed on European, American, and Latin American routes. In the next three months, they are expected to receive 18 new 12,000+TEU container ships [74][75][76]