A股策略周思考：特朗普TACO交易如何演绎？

Group 1: Market Insights on US-China Trade Relations - The report discusses the evolving dynamics of the US-China trade relationship, particularly in light of recent trade restrictions imposed by the US and corresponding countermeasures from China. The report highlights that despite tensions, both countries maintain significant economic cooperation, indicating that a complete decoupling is not feasible at this time [1][10][14] - The upcoming events, including the Fourth Plenary Session and the APEC summit, are expected to clarify domestic policies in China and their implications for US relations. The report notes that the market's reaction has been more rational, with diminishing marginal effects from tariff impacts [1][14] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a narrowing decline, with CPI at -0.3% year-on-year and PPI at -2.3%. The PPI-CPI gap has also narrowed from -2.5% in August to -2% in September [2][23][24] - Exports and imports in September rebounded, with exports increasing by 8.3% year-on-year and imports by 7.4%. The trade surplus was reported at $90.45 billion [2][31][32] - The report indicates a slight decline in social financing, with a total increase of 3.53 trillion yuan in September, which is 233.9 billion yuan less than the previous year. The structure of new loans shows a decrease in corporate medium to long-term loans [2][45][46] - Fiscal revenue showed improvement in September, with a year-on-year increase of 2.58%. Tax revenue rose by 8.66%, marking the highest growth rate for the year [2][54][55] Group 3: Industry Configuration Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment directions: breakthroughs in technology AI, economic recovery leading to a "stronger gets stronger" market trend, and the continued rise of undervalued assets. It emphasizes the importance of the AI industry trend and its impact on investment opportunities [4][14]