Huaxin Securities·2025-10-19 15:04Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [10][59]. Core Insights - The feedback from the recent Nanjing Autumn Sugar Fair was relatively flat, with major liquor companies showing low enthusiasm for participation. The focus is shifting towards consumer engagement through live streaming and other sales models [6][57]. - The white liquor sector is experiencing a demand bottoming phase, with inventory levels still relatively high. The report suggests focusing on high-dividend leaders like Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as flexible stocks that have corrected to appropriate levels [6][57]. - The consumer sector is rebounding, driven by market sentiment towards domestic demand policies amid U.S.-China tariff impacts. Companies in the snack food sector, such as Yanjin and Weidong, are benefiting from increased market penetration and revenue growth [7][58]. Summary by Sections Industry News - From January to August, the export value of Zunyi liquor increased by 776.17% year-on-year. In September, liquor prices fell by 1.3% year-on-year, and the Hubei liquor market reached a scale of 35 billion yuan [5][17][19]. Company News - Kweichow Moutai reported a significant recovery in terminal sales for its sauce-flavored liquor in September. Luzhou Laojiao held a 110th anniversary event, continuing to lead the vintage liquor market [19]. Key Company Feedback - The report highlights the performance of key companies, with a focus on their stock price movements and earnings forecasts. For instance, Kweichow Moutai's stock price is at 1455.00 yuan, with an EPS forecast of 68.64 for 2024 [60]. Industry Data Trends - The white liquor industry saw a cumulative production of 4.145 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 7.72% year-on-year, while industry revenue reached 796.4 billion yuan, an increase of 5.3% year-on-year [34][36]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies with long-term value and high dividends in the white liquor sector, while also highlighting the potential in the snack food and beverage sectors due to changing consumer preferences and market dynamics [58][59].