KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-10-19 15:18Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the prices of thermal coal and coking coal have reached a turning point, with thermal coal prices expected to rebound and stabilize above the long-term contract price of around 700 CNY per ton, with a potential target of 750 CNY per ton in 2025 [6][7][16] - The report highlights that the coal market is experiencing a significant price increase, with thermal coal prices rising to 748 CNY per ton as of October 17, 2025, marking a 6.1% increase from the previous period [6][20] - The investment logic is based on two main aspects: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends, suggesting that the coal sector is at a favorable entry point for investment [8][17] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal is categorized as a policy-driven commodity, with prices expected to recover to long-term contract levels due to the dual-track pricing mechanism [7][16] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by supply and demand fundamentals, with target prices set based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [7][16] Market Performance - The coal index increased by 4.17% in the week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.39 percentage points [11][28] - Major coal companies showed significant price increases, with the top performers being Dayou Energy (+53.13%), Zhengzhou Coal Electricity (+15.93%), and China Coal Energy (+11.68%) [11][28] Price Indicators - As of October 17, 2025, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price was 748 CNY per ton, reflecting a 6.1% increase [20] - The price of coking coal at Jingtang Port reached 1710 CNY per ton, up from 1630 CNY, indicating a 4.91% increase [21][23] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests four main lines for coal stock selection: cyclical logic (e.g., Jinko Coal and Yanzhou Coal), dividend logic (e.g., China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy), diversified aluminum elasticity (e.g., Shenhua Holdings), and growth logic (e.g., Xinji Energy and Guanghui Energy) [8][17]