宏观与大类资产周报：仍需耐心-20251019

Domestic Economic Indicators - September import and export data exceeded expectations, with exports at $328.57 billion (up 8.3% YoY) and imports at $238.12 billion (up 7.4% YoY), resulting in a trade surplus of $90.45 billion[16] - Fiscal spending showed an increase compared to the previous month, indicating a more robust fiscal policy[2] - Economic growth has slowed since Q3, but there is no acceleration in the downturn compared to the same period last year[2] Policy and Market Outlook - Two growth-stabilizing policies have been implemented, including a new financial policy tool of ¥500 billion and a ¥500 billion limit on local government debt, suggesting a temporary observation phase for policy effects[2][14] - The market is expected to enter a period of policy effect observation for the next 1-2 months, with a reduced likelihood of further stimulus[14] U.S. Economic Developments - Federal Reserve Chair Powell indicated an increased risk of job market downturns, suggesting continued interest rate cuts in October and a potential end to the balance sheet reduction[15] - Concerns over regional bank credit quality have emerged, primarily due to bad debts, but these risks are not currently systemic[15] Asset Market Performance - A-shares may have entered a left-side market phase but have not yet reached the right side, indicating a need for patience[3] - The market's profitability this year has largely stemmed from the Fed's rate cuts and a weaker dollar, with liquidity expansion now constrained by reduced future rate cut expectations[3][15] Monetary and Liquidity Trends - The overall liquidity environment remains loose, with a benchmark interest rate decline of approximately 1.58 basis points this week[4] - The average daily transaction volume in the interbank repo market increased by about ¥20.42 trillion compared to the previous week[21] Government Debt and Financing - The net repayment of government bonds was ¥102.5 billion, with a planned issuance of ¥880.23 billion for the upcoming week, significantly higher than the previous week's ¥308.3 billion[22] Currency and Commodity Movements - The onshore RMB appreciated slightly, with the average exchange rate rising by 0.1224% to 7.0988 against the USD[24] - Gold prices showed an upward trend, while international crude oil prices experienced a significant decline[36]