美国信用风险暴露与贸易前景

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Credit risk exposure in the US has a negative impact on the US economic fundamentals and import demand but may prompt the US government to handle trade relations more pragmatically [2]. - The US credit risk exposure might lead the Fed to accelerate interest rate cuts if the household debt delinquency ratio continues to rise, and it could replace inflation as the focus of the Fed's monetary policy [2]. - President Trump said that imposing a 100% tariff on China is "unsustainable", and China and the US agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs US Credit Risk Exposure and Trade Outlook - Two US regional banks reported loan fraud, and some companies went bankrupt, raising concerns about the credit asset quality of the US financial system [2]. - As of Q2 this year, the proportion of US household debt overdue for more than 90 days reached 3.04%, close to the level in Q3 2007. Delinquency ratios of student loans, auto - loans, and credit card debts are near or at 20 - year highs [2]. - Credit risk exposure may make the US financial system more reluctant to lend, reduce US residents' consumption propensity, and have a negative impact on the US economic fundamentals and import demand [2]. - Depending on the degree of systemic risk exposure of credit risk, its impact on the US government's trade policy, economic fundamentals, and trade import demand varies [2]. High - Frequency Data Scanning - In the week of October 18, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 2.73% week - on - week and 26.94% year - on - year; the Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased by 5.07% week - on - week and decreased by 7.07% year - on - year [2]. - Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices decreased by 4.66% and 4.87% week - on - week respectively; LME copper spot price decreased by 1.21% week - on - week, and LME aluminum spot price increased by 0.45% week - on - week [2]. - The domestic cement price index decreased by 1.95% week - on - week; the Nanhua iron ore index decreased by 1.42% week - on - week; the operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 200 million tons decreased by 2.28% week - on - week; the inventory of rebar decreased by 2.38% week - on - week; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills remained flat week - on - week [2].