朝闻国盛：三季报前瞻，兼论中观数据与盈利预测的景气指向

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in real estate sales, with new home sales in 30 cities dropping by 1.1% month-on-month, marking a new low for the same period in recent years, and a year-on-year decline of 26.6% [4] - The report indicates a decrease in the operating rates of coking, asphalt, and cement industries, suggesting that infrastructure work needs to accelerate [4] - It notes that, apart from coal, prices of major industrial products have mostly fallen, with pork prices rapidly declining, raising questions about the sustainability of price increases in October [4] Group 2: Financial Data Analysis - In September, the total fiscal revenue showed a slight year-on-year increase of 3.2%, while fiscal expenditure continued to decline, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.3% [5] - The report mentions that the new social financing growth rate in September was 8.7%, with a slight decrease from the previous month, while the total social financing for the month was 3.53 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.23 trillion yuan [16] - The report indicates that the M2 money supply growth rate was 8.4%, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% [17] Group 3: Industry-Specific Insights - The report discusses the coal industry, predicting that global coal consumption will peak in the latter half of the next decade and then decline, primarily due to reduced coal use in China and developed countries [19] - It emphasizes that by 2050, China's coal consumption is expected to decrease by about 20%, significantly impacting global coal supply dynamics [20] - The report recommends several coal companies, including Lu'an Huanneng and Yanzhou Coal Mining, highlighting their performance potential in the changing market landscape [21] Group 4: Consumer Goods and Services - The report notes that the white liquor market is stabilizing, with key brands like Luzhou Laojiao and Moutai showing strong long-term growth potential [24] - It highlights the performance of consumer goods companies, suggesting that brands like Qingdao Beer and Yili may benefit from policy support and recovery trends [24] - The report indicates that the sportswear brand Xtep is performing steadily, with a projected net profit growth for the coming years [37] Group 5: Technology and AI - The report discusses the performance of Cambricon Technologies, noting a significant revenue increase of 1333% year-on-year in Q3 2025, with expectations for continued growth driven by AI trends [32][35] - It highlights Hikvision's strong performance in Q3 2025, with a net profit increase of 20.3% year-on-year, reflecting effective management and market positioning [36] - The report suggests that the AI sector is expected to see substantial growth, with Cambricon positioned to benefit from national policies promoting technological independence [33]