特朗普会见泽连斯基，印尼能矿部恢复4家企业的采矿许可证

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Financial Markets: - Gold: Short - term price is in a volatile phase, with a risk of decline. [14][15] - U.S. Stock Index Futures: Market risk preference is expected to improve, but volatility remains high. It is recommended to take a bullish approach and buy on dips. [21] - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market has strengthened, but risks exist. It is recommended to take a cautious approach in short - term trading. [27][29] - Foreign Exchange Futures (USD Index): The USD is expected to be volatile in the short term. [18][19] - Stock Index Futures: It is recommended to allocate evenly among various stock indices. [25] - Commodity Markets: - Agricultural Products: - Sugar: ICE raw sugar is not expected to continue to decline significantly. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, and excessive short - selling is not recommended. [36][37] - Cotton: The upside of Zhengzhou cotton is limited, and it is under pressure in the short term. [41][42] - Soybean Meal: The price of soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile. [47] - Corn Starch: The price difference between rice and flour may be repaired when approaching delivery. [51] - Red Dates: It is recommended to wait and see before the red dates are harvested and priced. [54] - Corn: The 11 - contract is expected to decline, and the 01 - contract should be approached with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish strategy. [55] - Black Metals: - Rebar/HRC: Steel prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, and a volatile approach is recommended. [45][46] - Coking Coal/Coke: The price of coking coal in the Changzhi market is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the short term, but the sustainability of demand needs to be observed. [49][50] - Non - ferrous Metals: - Copper: The price of copper is expected to be volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to buy on dips for mid - term long positions. [57][58] - Polysilicon: It is expected that the spot price will remain flat in October. It is not recommended to chase the rise, and attention should be paid to buying on dips when the price is at a discount to the spot. [61][62] - Industrial Silicon: It is more cost - effective to buy on dips. [64] - Lead: Unilateral trading should be observed with a volatile perspective, and mid - term positive spreads between domestic and foreign markets can be considered. [65][66] - Zinc: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, and pay attention to mid - term positive spreads for arbitrage. [68] - Lithium Carbonate: Short - term trading should be range - bound, and mid - term short - selling opportunities should be considered after the peak demand season. [69][70] - Nickel: It is recommended for the allocation portfolio to buy mid - to long - term long positions on dips, and for the speculative portfolio to consider selling near - the - money puts and buying deep - out - of - the - money calls. [72][73] - Energy Chemicals: - Carbon Emissions: CEA is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term. [74][75] - Crude Oil: The price of crude oil is expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term. [75][76] - Methanol: It is recommended to wait and see. [77][78] - PVC: The price is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, and the downside space is limited. [80] - Caustic Soda: The price of caustic soda futures is expected to be weak in the short term. [82] - Bottle Chips: The supply - demand contradiction may accumulate in the fourth quarter, and there is pressure on the processing fee. [85] - Urea: It is not recommended to be overly bearish when the 2601 contract falls below 1600 yuan/ton. [88] - Soda Ash: A mid - term strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to the progress of new capacity. [90] - Float Glass: It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of long glass and short soda ash when the spread widens. [92] - Shipping Index: For the 12 - contract, continue to pay attention to low - buying opportunities, and pay attention to risk management due to geopolitical disturbances. [94][95] 3. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - News: Trump met with Zelensky, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange raised the margin for precious metals. [13][14] - Comment: Gold prices fluctuated sharply on Friday, reaching a new high before falling back. The market's bullish sentiment cooled down, and profit - taking occurred. Short - term gold is overbought, and attention should be paid to the risk of decline. [14] - Investment Advice: Gold prices will enter a volatile phase in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risk of decline. [15] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - USD Index) - News: The Bank of Japan's governor did not disclose whether to raise interest rates before the October policy meeting. The ECB's Lagarde advocated a unified approach to Russian assets. Trump urged Zelensky to accept a cease - fire. [16][17] - Comment: Trump pressured Ukraine to end the conflict, but a cease - fire along the current front line faces significant resistance. The USD is expected to be volatile in the short term. [18] - Investment Advice: The USD is expected to be volatile in the short term. [19] 1.3 Macro Strategy (U.S. Stock Index Futures) - News: Trump signed an executive order to impose tariffs on imported trucks, and Fed's Musalem supported a rate cut in October. [20][21] - Comment: With the start of the earnings season, the profit forecast of U.S. stocks has been revised upwards, and the risk of regional banks has not further spread. The Sino - U.S. negotiation situation has improved marginally, which is positive for risk assets. U.S. stocks may continue to recover their previous losses next week. [21] - Investment Advice: It is expected that market risk preference will continue to improve, but volatility remains high. A bullish approach should be taken, and buying on dips is recommended. [21] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - News: Vice - Premier He Lifeng held a video call with U.S. officials, and the Ministry of Finance announced measures to consolidate economic recovery. [22][23] - Comment: Tariff escalation has a long - tail effect. Next week, attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - U.S. negotiations and the Fourth Plenary Session. Stock indices are in a high - level volatile pattern. [24][25] - Investment Advice: It is recommended to allocate evenly among various stock indices. [25] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - News: The central government allocated 500 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit, and the central bank conducted 164.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases. [26][27] - Comment: The bond market has strengthened as expected, but risks exist. It is recommended to realize the floating profits of some unilateral trading positions next week. [27] - Investment Advice: A cautious approach is recommended for short - term trading. [29] 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - News: The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 42nd week was 2.1662 million tons, and the expected volume in the 43rd week is 2.3335 million tons. [30] - Comment: The palm oil market lacks a clear driver, and the soybean oil market lacks data and policy guidance and continues to fluctuate. [30] - Investment Advice: For palm oil, pay attention to production, inventory, and replenishment in India. A long - allocation approach is recommended. Soybean oil is expected to fluctuate, and rapeseed oil is recommended to be observed. [30][31] 2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - News: The Philippines suspended sugar imports until the end of the 2025/26 season. China's cumulative sugar imports in the 2024/25 season were 4.63 million tons. The number of sugar - carrying ships in Brazilian ports increased to 90. Brazilian sugar production in the second half of September was 3.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.8%. [32][33][34][35] - Comment: Brazilian sugar production is strong, but the sugar - making ratio has declined for three consecutive weeks, indicating that sugar mills are more willing to produce ethanol. ICE raw sugar is not expected to continue to decline significantly. [36] - Investment Advice: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, and excessive short - selling is not recommended. [37] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - News: The cumulative public inspection of Xinjiang cotton was 560,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 124%. India's cotton production and imports were adjusted. Cotton prices stabilized, and the downstream market was weak. [38][39][40] - Comment: The purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton is stable, which supports Zhengzhou cotton. However, the pressure of hedging and weak downstream demand limit the upside. [41] - Investment Advice: The upside of Zhengzhou cotton is limited, and it is under pressure in the short term. [42] 2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - News: China's shipbuilding indicators ranked first globally in the first three quarters. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.4095 million tons. [44][45] - Comment: The inventory of five major steel products has declined, but the absolute inventory is still high. The demand for building materials is weak, and the supply pressure of finished steel exists. Steel prices are expected to be volatile and weak. [45] - Investment Advice: A volatile approach is recommended for steel prices in the short term. [46] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - News: The soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills is expected to increase. [47] - Comment: The U.S. government shutdown has led to a lack of data. The domestic supply of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter is sufficient, and the inventory of soybean meal is high. [47] - Investment Advice: The price of soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile. [47] 2.6 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - News: The price of coking coal in the Changzhi market is stable. [48][49] - Comment: The production of coking coal is normal, and the demand for replenishment exists. The price of coking coal is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the short term, but the sustainability of demand needs to be observed. [49] - Investment Advice: The price of coking coal is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the short term, but the sustainability of demand needs to be observed. [50] 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - News: The operating rate of starch sugar products has increased slightly after the holiday. [51] - Comment: The theoretical profit of starch enterprises has improved, and the operating rate has increased, and the inventory has accumulated seasonally. The price difference between rice and flour may be repaired when approaching delivery. [51] - Investment Advice: The price difference between rice and flour may be repaired when approaching delivery. [51] 2.8 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - News: The price of red dates in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market fluctuated slightly. [52] - Comment: The futures price of red dates rose, and the supply is about to enter the harvesting period, while the demand is weak. [53][54] - Investment Advice: It is recommended to wait and see before the red dates are harvested and priced. [54] 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - News: The inventory of major corn processing enterprises increased by 5.48%. [55] - Comment: The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has entered the seasonal increase stage. The spot price is expected to be weak and volatile, and the futures price is expected to follow the decline. [55] - Investment Advice: The 11 - contract is expected to decline, and the 01 - contract should be approached with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish strategy. [55] 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - News: Codelco raised the copper premium in Europe in 2026 to a record high. Zijin Mining's net profit in the third quarter increased by 52.25% year - on - year. [56][57] - Comment: The market will focus on Sino - U.S. trade negotiations and U.S. inflation data. The macro factors may cause short - term fluctuations in copper prices. The domestic and LME inventories show different trends. The price of copper is expected to be volatile. [57][58] - Investment Advice: It is recommended to wait for opportunities to buy on dips for mid - term long positions. Arbitrage should be observed. [58] 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - News: Hebei plans to adjust the time - of - use electricity price. The price of polysilicon products is stable, and the demand is weakening at the end of October. [59][60][61] - Comment: The price of polysilicon is expected to be flat. Although there are many negative factors in the fundamentals, the upstream has no obvious inventory pressure, and production restrictions and sales restrictions are still being implemented. [61] - Investment Advice: It is expected that the spot price will remain flat in October. It is not recommended to chase the rise, and attention should be paid to buying on dips when the price is at a discount to the spot. [62] 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - News: The operating rate of silicon enterprises in Xinjiang has increased, while that in the south has decreased. The social inventory has increased. [63][64] - Comment: The fundamentals are weakening, and the price is under pressure. However, the price needs to break through 10,000 yuan/ton to increase supply significantly. Buying on dips is more cost - effective. [64] - Investment Advice: Buying on dips is more cost - effective. [64] 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - News: The LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $44.99/ton on October 16. [65] - Comment: The prices of domestic and LME lead showed different trends last week. The supply of primary and secondary lead is expected to recover. The inventory of lead ingots has increased, but the short - term supply - demand mismatch may continue. The internal - external price ratio is expected to return. [65] - Investment Advice: Unilateral trading should be observed with a volatile perspective, and mid - term positive spreads between domestic and foreign markets can be considered. [66] 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - News: The LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of $137.2/ton on October 16. Bolivia's zinc concentrate production decreased in 2025, while Peru's increased in August. [67][68] - Comment: The high premium of LME zinc has stimulated a small amount of overseas warehousing, and the zinc ingot export window has opened briefly. The global low - inventory situation is difficult to improve. The price of Shanghai zinc is expected to be volatile, and the price difference may turn positive. [68] - Investment Advice: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, and pay attention to mid - term positive spreads for arbitrage. Positive - spread positions should be closed in batches on dips. [68] 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - News: Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, reached the standard. [69] - Comment: The inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased, which supports the price. The price may be supported by the de - stocking in the peak season, but further upward momentum depends on supply disruptions. [69] - Investment Advice: Short - term trading should be range - bound, and mid - term short - selling opportunities should be considered after the peak demand season. [70] 2