软商品日报：受美银行业震荡影响，白糖盘整为主-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for cold drinks in summer, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widened price gap between domestic and foreign markets. The impact of rainfall in Inner Mongolia on sugar beet production and the growth recovery of sugarcane after typhoon disasters in Guangdong and Guangxi need further attention [1][3]. - High temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August pose a high risk of heat damage to cotton. With the continuous decline of commercial cotton inventory and the approaching peak season of cotton textile industry, there is a bottom - support for cotton prices. The cotton growth period has suitable meteorological conditions, and the price is expected to operate in the range of 14,000 - 16,000 yuan [1][3]. - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5,790 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5,760 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14,500 yuan [1] 3.2 Disk - U.S. sugar closed at 15.53 with a change of 0.00%. U.S. cotton closed at 64.29 with a change of 0.00% [1] 3.3 Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the demand for cold drinks in summer, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widened price gap between domestic and foreign markets [1] - Cotton: High temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August pose a high risk of heat damage to cotton. The current commercial cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, and with the approaching peak season of cotton textile industry, there is a bottom - support for cotton prices [1] 3.4 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 8,418.0, with a change of - 0.24%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 2,653.0, with a change of - 2.61% [2] 3.5 Conclusion - Sugar: In August, excessive rainfall in Inner Mongolia is not conducive to the sugar accumulation and harvesting of sugar beets, and the start - up time of sugar mills is postponed. In late September and early October, sugarcane in major producing areas such as Guangdong and Guangxi was affected by typhoons, and the post - disaster growth recovery needs continuous attention [3] - Cotton: The meteorological conditions during the cotton growth period are suitable, and the yield and quality in some areas are higher than expected. As of October 6, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang is 24.9%, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The opening price of seed cotton is slightly lower year - on - year, and there is a downward risk after the centralized listing. The cotton price is expected to operate in the range of 14,000 - 16,000 yuan [3] 3.6 Data Quick View - External Market Quotes: U.S. sugar and cotton prices remained unchanged from October 18 to 19, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] - Spot Prices: Sugar spot prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged from October 16 to 17, 2025, with a change of 0.00%. The cotton index 328 increased by 0.10%, and Xinjiang cotton spot price remained unchanged [4] - Price Difference Quick View: All price differences and basis of sugar and cotton remained unchanged from October 18 to 19, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] - Import Prices: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged from October 16 to 17, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] - Profit Margin: The sugar import profit remained unchanged from October 16 to 17, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] - Options: The implied volatility and historical volatility of sugar and cotton options are provided [4] - Inventory Warehouse Receipts: From October 16 to 17, 2025, sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 0.24%, and cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 2.61% [4]