股指期货：关注潜在利多的空间

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the A-share market declined overall, with defensive sectors outperforming. The growth sectors led the decline, mainly due to Sino-US trade frictions and the emerging credit risks of US regional banks, which suppressed risk appetite. Although economic data in September exceeded expectations, the market continued to price marginal changes. Since October, external black swan events have made the market sentiment extremely sensitive, amplifying market fluctuations [1]. - The current core drivers are the development of external geopolitical situations and the extent of domestic policy support. The Fourth Plenary Session started at the beginning of this week, and the core content of the "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to be announced on the closing day of the meeting on October 23. If the content exceeds expectations, it may trigger speculative trading in related themes. Regarding external geopolitics, there are signs of easing in Sino-US relations. If the news of a meeting between the Chinese and US presidents is confirmed as the APEC meeting in South Korea approaches in late October, risk appetite may recover. After last week's adjustment, the market is expected to stabilize this week, but the upward space depends on whether positive Sino-US news can materialize [2]. - Key factors to watch include China's September production and consumption data, Q3 GDP data, the progress of Sino-US relations, and the performance of the US stock market [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term Strategy: For intraday trading, refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [3]. - Trend Strategy: Buy on dips. The core trading ranges for the IF2511, IH2511, IC2511, and IM2511 contracts are expected to be between 4361 - 4586 points, 2890 - 3023 points, 6715 - 7165 points, and 6852 - 7313 points respectively [3]. - Cross - variety Strategy: Re - enter the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [4]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Spot Market Review - Last week, global stock indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.4%, and most major domestic indices declined. Among them, the ChiNext Index and the Small and Medium - sized Board Index led the decline, falling by 5.71% and 5.77% respectively. In terms of sectors, the banking, coal, and food and beverage sectors had the highest gains, while the electronics, media, and automotive sectors led the decline [1][8][12][14]. - Since 2025, most domestic indices have risen, with the ChiNext Index leading the way with a 37.1% increase [10]. 4.2 Stock Index Futures Market Review - Last week, among the stock index futures main contracts, the IC contract had the largest decline and the largest amplitude [17][20]. - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures have rebounded [19][21]. 4.3 Index Valuation Tracking - As of October 17, the price - to - earnings ratios (TTM) of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were 14.15 times, 11.95 times, 33.44 times, and 45.68 times respectively [24][25]. 4.4 Market Capital Flow Review - The share of newly established equity - biased funds and the margin trading balance in the A - share market are provided in the report, and last week, the capital interest rate dropped, and the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of funds [27].