贵金属：价格回调企稳后仍将继续上涨

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The prices of gold and silver will continue to rise after the price correction stabilizes. The current correction is not a reversal, presenting a good window for buying on dips. The Fed's loose monetary policy is in the early stage, and the overseas silver spot shortage cannot be completely resolved due to structural supply - demand imbalance [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Key Shift in the Fed's Monetary Policy Stance - The Fed's monetary policy has entered a key node of dovish shift. Fed Chairman Powell said the US economic data during the government shutdown was better than expected, the downside risk in the labor market has increased, and commodity price increases are mainly due to tariff policies. He also announced that the Fed will soon end the quantitative tightening (QT) operation [4]. - A loan risk event occurred in some small US banks, which, combined with Powell's speech on suspending the balance - sheet shrinkage, provides a solid reason for the Fed to end the balance - sheet shrinkage and move towards expansion. The Fed's loose monetary policy expectations will continue to be a macro - level positive factor for precious metal prices [4]. - The selection of the new Fed Chairman is ongoing. Different candidates have different stances on monetary policy, which may affect the Fed's future policy direction and is expected to be a positive factor for precious metal prices [5]. II. Silver Faces Structural Shortage, and International Silver Prices are Supported - Driven by the increasing expectation of Fed easing, the silver price has been strong this year. From January 2 to October 17, 2025, the price of the COMEX silver main contract increased by 72.72% and reached a record high of $53.76 per ounce [9]. - The strong silver price has led institutions and individual investors at home and abroad to include silver in their investment portfolios. The total holdings of major overseas silver ETFs have increased, and the physical locking of ETFs has made the London silver spot tight [11]. - Although the silver spot lease rate has declined and the COMEX silver inventory has decreased, the New York - London silver price spread has rebounded, and the COMEX12 contract holdings have increased. The shortage of overseas silver spot can only be alleviated in the short term. The strategy for precious metals still recommends a long - term view, and the reference operating ranges for the Shanghai gold and silver main contracts are given [12].