渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.10.20）-20251020

Macro and Strategy Research - The establishment of the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) in 2021 aimed to support the innovative development of small and medium-sized enterprises, resulting in 278 listed companies by 2025, with nearly 80% being small and micro enterprises and 88% being private enterprises. 72% of these companies belong to specialized and innovative sectors. In the first half of 2025, these companies achieved a total operating income of 93.35 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.12 billion yuan, with 61.5% of companies reporting revenue growth and 50.4% reporting net profit growth year-on-year [2][3]. - Despite the economic challenges of strong supply and weak demand, the BSE has shown a trend of "increasing revenue without increasing profit," with a year-on-year revenue growth rate in Q2 2025 continuing the positive growth trend since Q4 2024. However, net profit attributable to shareholders has been in continuous decline since Q4 2022, with Q2 2025 also reflecting this trend. The return on equity showed marginal improvement due to seasonal recovery in total asset turnover and leverage effects [3]. - In terms of industry performance, the upstream resource sectors showed a year-on-year decline in net profit growth, consistent with the overall trends in the A-share market. In the midstream materials sector, the basic chemical industry experienced negative growth, while the construction materials industry achieved positive growth. The construction decoration industry in the midstream manufacturing sector outperformed its A-share counterparts, while sectors like electric equipment and machinery showed negative growth. In the consumer sectors, BSE companies in beauty care and automotive performed better than their A-share counterparts, while in essential consumption, textile and apparel companies exceeded overall industry performance [3]. - Overall, BSE companies, which have a high concentration of specialized and innovative small and medium enterprises, have significant competitive differentiation in consumer sectors like beauty care and textiles. Additionally, by focusing on niche markets, BSE companies in the construction decoration sector have shown performance that exceeds industry cycles [4]. Fixed Income Research - The issuance of ultra-long special government bonds has been completed, with a total of 48 bonds issued during the period from October 10 to October 16, 2025, amounting to 625.2 billion yuan in total issuance and a net financing amount of 155.3 billion yuan. As of October 16, 2025, 37 billion yuan of new local special bonds have been issued, and 13 billion yuan of ultra-long special government bonds have been issued, completing the annual issuance plan [12][13]. - The bond yield curve has flattened slightly, with the 10-year government bond yield showing a fluctuating pattern. The relationship between stock and bond markets has become more correlated, with major stock indices and government bond yields moving in tandem [13]. Industry Research - Recent developments in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector include the signing of a licensing agreement between Hansoh Pharmaceutical and Roche, as well as various approvals and notifications from the National Medical Insurance Administration regarding reforms and pilot programs in traditional Chinese medicine [15]. - The overall performance of the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has seen a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 0.45% and the Shenzhen Component Index falling by 4.66%. The pharmaceutical sector specifically decreased by 2.12%, with most sub-sectors experiencing declines [15][16]. - Looking ahead, the upcoming European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) annual meeting is expected to provide investment opportunities through the disclosure of research results from innovative Chinese pharmaceutical companies. The third-quarter earnings reporting period is also anticipated to show gradual improvements in fundamentals, particularly in sectors benefiting from optimized procurement rules [16].