有色金属日报 2025-10-20-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the text regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short - term due to the uncertain Sino - US trade negotiations with marginal improvement in sentiment, tight copper raw material supply, and improved downstream consumption as prices fall [2][3]. - Aluminum prices may oscillate strongly in the short - term. Although Sino - US trade tensions are uncertain, sentiment is warming up. Domestically, aluminum ingot inventories are decreasing, and copper price increases also support aluminum prices [5][6]. - Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term as lead ore port inventories rise, smelting开工率 remains high, and downstream demand improves, leading to continuous inventory reduction [8][9]. - Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short - term. Domestic zinc ore inventories are decreasing, zinc ingot inventories are rising, and the export window affects the price [10][11]. - Tin prices may remain high and oscillate in the short - term. Supply is tight due to slow tin mine复产 and government crackdown on illegal mining, and demand is improving marginally in the peak season [13][14]. - Nickel prices may be affected in the short - term by Sino - US trade frictions, but in the long - term, they are supported by factors such as US easing expectations and domestic policies. Short - term watch is recommended, and bargain - hunting can be considered if prices fall enough [15][16][17]. - Lithium carbonate prices may oscillate in a high range in the short - term. There is a short - term supply - demand imbalance, and social inventories are decreasing. Attention should be paid to the supply recovery [19][20]. - Alumina prices are recommended to be watched in the short - term. Although the current price is close to the cost line and there are expectations of production cuts, the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change in the short - term [22][23]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. The price limit increase by Qing Shan Steel boosts market confidence, but downstream demand may not support continuous price increases [25][26]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices have limited upward potential in the short - term. Although sentiment may improve and cost support becomes stronger, the delivery pressure of near - month contracts is large due to increasing warehouse receipts [28][29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - 行情资讯: On October 18, LME copper closed down 0.12% to $10,607/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 84,890 yuan/ton. LME copper inventories decreased by 225 to 137,225 tons. Domestic copper spot import losses narrowed, and the refined - scrap spread decreased [2]. - 策略观点: Short - term copper prices may be strong. Sino - US trade negotiations are uncertain, but sentiment is improving. Supply is tight, and downstream consumption has improved [3]. Aluminum - 行情资讯: On October 18, LME aluminum closed down 0.63% to $2,778/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,925 yuan/ton. Domestic and overseas inventories decreased, and the market was cautious [5]. - 策略观点: Short - term aluminum prices may oscillate strongly. Sino - US trade tensions may ease, inventories are decreasing, and copper price increases support aluminum prices [6]. Lead - 行情资讯: On October 18, SHFE lead index closed down 0.19% to 17,083 yuan/ton. Various lead - related prices and inventory data are provided [8]. - 策略观点: Short - term lead prices may be strong. Lead ore port inventories are rising, smelting开工率 is high, and downstream demand is improving, leading to inventory reduction [9]. Zinc - 行情资讯: On October 18, SHFE zinc index closed down 0.59% to 21,836 yuan/ton. Various zinc - related prices and inventory data are provided, and domestic social inventories increased slightly [10]. - 策略观点: Short - term zinc prices may be weak. Domestic zinc ore inventories are decreasing, zinc ingot inventories are rising, and the export window affects the price [11]. Tin - 行情资讯: On October 17, SHFE tin closed down 0.21% to 280,750 yuan/ton. Supply is tight due to slow tin mine复产 in Myanmar and government crackdown on illegal mining in Indonesia. Demand in some areas is improving marginally [13]. - 策略观点: Short - term tin prices may remain high and oscillate. Supply is tight, and demand is improving marginally in the peak season. It is recommended to watch [14]. Nickel - 行情资讯: On October 18, SHFE nickel closed down 0.09% to 121,160 yuan/ton. Nickel iron prices are weak, and refined nickel inventories are high [15]. - 策略观点: Short - term nickel prices may be affected by Sino - US trade frictions, but in the long - term, they are supported by factors such as US easing expectations and domestic policies. Short - term watch is recommended, and bargain - hunting can be considered if prices fall enough [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - 行情资讯: On October 17, the MMLC spot index rose 2.75%. Battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices increased, and lithium concentrate prices also rose [19]. - 策略观点: Short - term lithium carbonate prices may oscillate in a high range. There is a short - term supply - demand imbalance, and social inventories are decreasing. Attention should be paid to the supply recovery [20]. Alumina - 行情资讯: On October 17, the alumina index rose 0.36% to 2,809 yuan/ton. Spot prices in Shandong decreased, and the import window is closed. Futures inventories decreased [22]. - 策略观点: Short - term alumina prices are recommended to be watched. Although the current price is close to the cost line and there are expectations of production cuts, the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change in the short - term [23]. Stainless Steel - 行情资讯: On October 18, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,630 yuan/ton, up 0.12%. Spot prices in some markets were stable, and raw material prices changed slightly. Social inventories decreased [25]. - 策略观点: Short - term stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate. The price limit increase by Qing Shan Steel boosts market confidence, but downstream demand may not support continuous price increases [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - 行情资讯: On October 18, the main contract of cast aluminum alloy closed down 0.49% to 20,390 yuan/ton. Domestic mainstream prices were stable, and inventories decreased slightly [28]. - 策略观点: Cast aluminum alloy prices have limited upward potential in the short - term. Although sentiment may improve and cost support becomes stronger, the delivery pressure of near - month contracts is large due to increasing warehouse receipts [29].