2025年9月进出口数据点评：进出口同比数据双增超预期

Trade Performance - In September 2025, China's exports totaled $325.87 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.30%, significantly exceeding market expectations of 5.65%[2] - Imports reached $238.12 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 7.40%, up 6.10 percentage points from the previous month, far surpassing the expected 1.37%[2] - The trade surplus for September was recorded at $90.45 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.63%[2] Export Drivers - Machinery and electrical products contributed 7.68 percentage points to the export growth, marking seven consecutive months as the core support for export growth[2] - Key products driving export growth included integrated circuits, LCD display modules, ships, and automobiles[2] - Fertilizer exports saw a quantity increase of over 68%, while other categories also experienced significant growth of over 10%[3] Market Dynamics - Exports to Africa, East Asia, and the EU were the top three contributors to export growth, with contributions of 2.66%, 2.39%, and 1.97% respectively[3] - Exports to the U.S. have shown a continuous decline for six months, with a drag of 4.19 percentage points on overall export growth[3] - ASEAN emerged as the largest export destination for the first nine months of 2025, with cumulative exports of $536.61 billion[3] Economic Outlook - The strong performance in September is attributed to a combination of holiday logistics planning and increased working days compared to the previous year[9] - Despite the robust trade data, potential uncertainties loom due to the threat of additional tariffs from the Trump administration, which could impact future trade dynamics[9]