宏观和大类资产配置周报：本周沪深300指数下跌2.22%-20251020

Macroeconomic Overview - The macroeconomic report indicates a 2.22% decline in the CSI 300 index this week, with the recommended asset allocation order being equities > commodities > bonds > cash [1][2][4]. Asset Performance Review - The CSI 300 index fell by 2.22%, while the CSI 300 stock index futures dropped by 2.36%. In contrast, coking coal futures increased by 1.67%, and iron ore futures decreased by 3.02%. The annualized yield of Yu'ebao rose by 1 basis point to 1.06%, and the yield on ten-year government bonds remained stable at 1.82% [2][13][40]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - In September, China's imports saw a significant month-on-month increase of 8.5%. High-tech product imports remained active, with semiconductor devices, integrated circuits, and automatic data processing equipment showing year-on-year growth rates of 3.0%, 8.8%, and 27.2%, respectively. The import of copper ore and copper products also maintained positive year-on-year growth, indicating a potential recovery in domestic manufacturing and infrastructure investment [3][21]. Economic Data Insights - In September, China's CPI rose by 0.1% month-on-month but fell by 0.3% year-on-year, while PPI remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 2.3% year-on-year. The fiscal revenue for the first three quarters reached 16.39 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, with a notable growth of 2.5% in the third quarter [6][24][21]. Market Trends - The A-share market showed weakness this week, with only the Shanghai Dividend Index rising by 2.96%. The leading sectors included banking (4.99%), coal (4.27%), and food and beverage (0.85%), while the electronics components sector led the declines with a drop of 7.10% [40][41]. Bond Market Analysis - The yield on ten-year government bonds closed at 1.82%, down 1 basis point, while the yield on ten-year policy bank bonds fell by 3 basis points to 1.99%. The credit spread decreased by 4 basis points to 0.36% [45][46]. Commodity Market Insights - The report highlights fluctuations in commodity prices, with NYMEX crude oil futures down by 2.80% to $57.25 per barrel, while COMEX gold rose by 6.69% to $4,267.90 per ounce [18][19]. Real Estate Market Overview - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities showed a slight rebound, with a weekly transaction area of 1.2797 million square meters. The report anticipates that the "stabilizing real estate" policy will continue to have a positive effect in the fourth quarter [36][39]. Automotive Industry Trends - In the automotive sector, the wholesale and retail sales of passenger vehicles showed a year-on-year growth of -1% and 7%, respectively, indicating a focus on consumption as a key driver for expanding domestic demand [36][42]. High-Frequency Data Tracking - The report notes an increase in the operating rates of major steel mills, with rebar and wire rod operating rates rising by 1.35 and 1.78 percentage points, respectively. However, the operating rates of petroleum asphalt facilities in various regions showed a decline [26][27].