EBSCN·2025-10-20 01:31Macro Analysis - The land market remains sluggish, dragging down local government fund revenues, which are significantly lagging behind previous years [2] - The acceleration of fund activation post-special bond issuance is reflected in a substantial year-on-year decrease in fiscal deposits, aiding in improving narrow liquidity and stabilizing infrastructure investment growth for the year [2] - The combined effect of policy financial tools and the use of local debt limits amounts to 1 trillion yuan, positively impacting credit expansion and investment [2] Strategy Insights - The market is likely still in a bull phase, although it may enter a wide fluctuation stage in the short term, with the current maximum drawdown being 4.01%, which is within historical levels [4] - Short-term focus should be on defensive and consumer sectors, while mid-term attention should shift to TMT and advanced manufacturing [4] Bond Market Overview - The issuance of credit bonds increased significantly, with 379 bonds issued totaling 433.33 billion yuan, a 206.54% increase compared to the previous period [5] - The secondary market for REITs saw a notable decline, with the weighted REITs index closing at 181.3, reflecting a weekly return of -1.42% [4][5] Real Estate Sector - In September, the transaction area of commercial residential properties in 30 core cities was 10.8 million square meters, down 1.2% year-on-year but up 22.2% month-on-month, with an average transaction price of 24,133 yuan per square meter, up 1.9% year-on-year and 1.5% month-on-month [9] - The second-hand housing market in 15 core cities saw a transaction area of 12.23 million square meters, up 15.5% year-on-year and 2.6% month-on-month [9] Electric New Energy Sector - The electric new energy sector is experiencing increased volatility due to fluctuating tariff policies, with the storage and lithium battery segments remaining the most promising [10] - High-tech developments, such as the 800VDC distribution architecture by Nvidia, are expected to influence the sector's future trends [10] Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - Global copper inventories reached a near five-year high, with supply constraints expected to keep prices elevated despite potential short-term volatility due to trade tensions [11] - Recommendations include companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, with a focus on the recovery of demand in Q4 [11] Chemical Industry - The supply-demand dynamics for lithium hexafluorophosphate are improving, with prices expected to rise, suggesting a focus on leading companies in this segment [13] - The oil and gas sector shows resilience in pricing, particularly for the "three barrels of oil," with expectations for natural gas consumption to recover in the upcoming winter [12] Company Research - Jianfa Property reported a sales figure of 95.6 billion yuan for the first nine months, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%, with a strong outlook for project deliveries [14] - China Jiemao's sales reached 80.7 billion yuan, up 27% year-on-year, indicating robust performance and growth potential in property management projects [15] - Huayou Cobalt achieved a net profit of 4.22 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a 39.6% increase year-on-year, with strong future profit projections [16] - Zijin Mining's net profit for the first three quarters was 37.86 billion yuan, reflecting a 55.5% year-on-year growth, with positive forecasts for the coming years [17]