资讯早间报-20251020

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international precious metals futures generally closed lower, with the Fed officials' statements strengthening the interest - rate cut expectations and the uncertainty of the US government shutdown driving funds to precious metals. The oil prices rose due to the expected supply - side contraction. Most London base metals declined. The domestic futures contracts showed mixed trends [4]. - The financial market shows a strong recovery in the fund market, with active ETF and index fund issuance. The capital markets are affected by policies and strategic intentions, and the M&A in the stock market is mainly focused on industry integration. The silver price in the industry has risen significantly, and the shipping, banking, and real - estate industries have also had relevant developments. Overseas, there are developments in trade negotiations, visa policies, and credit ratings [34][39]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - Precious Metals: COMEX gold futures fell 0.85% to $4267.90 per ounce (weekly gain of 6.69%), and COMEX silver futures fell 5.01% to $50.63 per ounce (weekly gain of 7.15%) [4]. - Crude Oil: The US oil main contract rose 0.46% to $57.25 per barrel (weekly loss of 2.80%), and the Brent crude main contract rose 0.46% to $61.34 per barrel (weekly loss of 2.22%) [4]. - London Base Metals: Most declined, such as LME tin down 2.07% to $35030 per ton (weekly loss of 3.16%), LME nickel down 1.03% to $15110 per ton (weekly loss of 1.11%) [4]. - Domestic Futures: Some rose, like coking coal up over 3%, coke up over 2%, and soda ash up over 1%. Some declined, such as caustic soda down over 1%, iron ore, corn, and double - gum paper down over 0.5% [6]. Important Information Macro Information - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index rose 149.9 points to 1310.32, while the China Export Container Freight Index fell 4.1% to 973.11 [8]. - If the US government shutdown continues after the weekend, President Trump may increase his actions [9]. - The national general public budget revenue in the first three quarters of 2025 was 16.3876 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5% [10]. - The central government allocated 500 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit to local governments [10]. - The US initial jobless claims decreased during the government shutdown, with about 215,000 in the week ending October 11, lower than the previous week's estimate of 234,000 [10]. - Governor Pan Gongsheng of the People's Bank of China pointed out that trade frictions and geopolitical uncertainties drag on the world economy, and emerging markets face challenges [10]. - President Trump will impose new tariffs on imported medium and heavy - duty trucks and parts (25%) and passenger cars (10%) starting from November 1 [12]. - The Israeli Defense Forces resumed the cease - fire in the Gaza Strip [12]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Russia cancelled fuel import tariffs due to decreased domestic demand for petroleum products [14]. - China's styrene factory output in the week ending October 16 was 339,400 tons, a decrease of 2.33% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 71.88%, a decrease of 1.73% [14]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky discussed energy reconstruction and long - term cooperation with US energy company executives [15]. Metal Futures - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the price limit range and margin ratios of gold and silver futures contracts from October 21 [17]. - Last week, copper inventory increased by 550 tons, aluminum inventory decreased by 2749 tons, etc. in the Shanghai Futures Exchange [19]. - China's 14 - port nickel ore inventory increased by 279,100 wet tons to 15.2884 million wet tons, a 1.86% increase [19]. - Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, produced the first bag of battery - grade lithium hydroxide that met the standards [19]. - Peru's zinc concentrate output in August 2025 was 146,700 metric tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.2% and a year - on - year increase of 29.2% [19]. - The four - province weekly operating rate of recycled lead from October 10 - 16 was 35.11%, an increase of 1.07 percentage points from the previous week [20]. - The Indonesian president handed over six seized tin smelters to a state - owned enterprise [20]. - As of Thursday, the alumina raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants was 3.126 million tons, an increase of 32,000 tons from the previous week, and the spot market was in a state of oversupply [21]. - The silver price has risen by nearly 70% this year, and most shops in Yongxing County, Hunan, are out of stock [21]. Black - Series Futures - Coke prices in Xingtai and Yuncheng markets are planned to be raised, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton starting from October 20 [24]. - The National Energy Administration issued an opinion on promoting the high - quality development of coal washing [24]. - The inventory of 63 independent ferrosilicon - manganese enterprises reached 262,500 tons, a new high in over 17.5 months, and the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises increased by 4.62% [24]. - The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 142.7827 million tons, an increase of 2.5377 million tons, and at 47 ports was 149.6187 million tons, an increase of 3.2079 million tons [24]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.27%, unchanged from the previous week, and the iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.33%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points [25]. - The total urban inventory this week was 9.6274 million tons, a decrease of 53,600 tons (- 0.55%) from the previous week [26]. Agricultural Product Futures - The Ministry of Commerce will hold a hearing on the anti - dumping case of pork and pork by - products [29]. - The actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills in the 42nd week (October 11 - 17) was 2.1662 million tons, with an operating rate of 59.59%, 0.12 million tons lower than the forecast [29]. - Argentina's soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 17.5 million hectares, a 2.8% decrease from the previous year [30]. - Canada's rapeseed exports in the week ending October 12 increased by 97.8% to 159,200 tons [31]. - The State Council executive meeting pointed out that this year's grain is expected to have a good harvest, and the supply of vegetable - basket products is sufficient [32]. - Tangrenshen sold 3.7622 million pigs from January to September, and its 2025 pig - slaughtering target is 5 - 5.5 million [32]. Financial Market Finance - As of October 19, 2025, the number of newly established funds this year reached 1,163, exceeding the 1,135 in 2024. Stock - type funds had 661 new establishments, with a issuance scale of 339.396 billion yuan, accounting for 37.45% of the total issuance scale, a 15 - year high since 2011 [34]. - As of October 17, the net inflow of the ETF market in October was 99.161 billion yuan, with equity - based ETFs contributing 92.457 billion yuan, accounting for over 90% [34]. - The two capital - market monetary policy tools created by the People's Bank of China last year injected billions of yuan into the market, boosting investor confidence and reducing A - share volatility [35]. - At least 8 Shanghai - listed companies announced the completion of restructuring in the third quarter, with industry integration as the main line [35]. - The main structural clue in the A - share market is Chinese enterprises going global. After the dividend rotation, new clues such as industrial chain security and end - side AI should be tracked [37]. - The market is in a bull - market consolidation period, and key sectors to focus on include dividends, precious metals, and AI [37]. - The unit net value of the "Sanmao Fund" has risen to 0.9854 yuan, close to full recovery [38]. Industry - The silver price has risen by nearly 70% this year, and most shops in Yongxing County are out of stock [39]. - Banks are in the "year - end battle" phase, and some small and medium - sized banks have started next year's "good start" activities two months earlier [39]. - The China Shipowners' Association signed cooperation MOUs with international shipping institutions, promoting the development of the shipping industry [41]. - The Wuhan Economic and Technological Development Zone launched housing purchase subsidy policies [41]. Overseas - Australian Prime Minister Albanese will meet with US President Trump to discuss issues such as the rare - earth material supply chain [42]. - South Korea and the US are likely to reach a trade agreement before the APEC meeting [43]. - Japan will increase visa application fees in 2026 to address over - tourism and cost - increase issues [43]. - S&P downgraded France's long - term foreign - currency issuer default rating from "AA -" to "A+", the second downgrade in about 1.5 years [44]. - 8 pieces of valuable jewelry were stolen from the Louvre in France [45]. International Stocks - South Korean investors are actively investing in leveraged VIX products, with about $130 million flowing into 2x long VIX futures ETFs this year [46]. Commodities - The international gold price has risen strongly, and gold - related ETFs have seen an expansion in management scale. The long - term support for gold prices remains [47]. - India's oil imports from Russia increased in the first half of October, with an average daily import of about 1.8 million barrels, 250,000 barrels more than in September [47]. Bonds - The performance of "fixed - income plus" products varies greatly, with a difference of over 42 percentage points for mixed - bond - type secondary funds [48]. - Bond ETFs can better capture investment opportunities in the bond market, and the current bond - market adjustment is more favorable [49]. Upcoming Events - At 09:20, the People's Bank of China has 253.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing [51]. - At 09:30, the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities will be released [51]. - At 10:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic situation [51]. - At 11:50, Bank of Japan board member Takada So will give a speech [51]. - At 16:00, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel will give a speech [51]. - At 22:30, the Bank of Canada will release business and consumer expectation survey reports [51]. - Haixi New Drug will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [51]. - Ningde Times, China Mobile, and other companies will release financial reports [51]. - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee will be held from October 20 - 23 [51]. - President Trump will meet with Prime Minister Albanese [51]. - At 03:00 the next day, the governors of the German and French central banks will give speeches in New York [51].