电解铝：宏观扰动不改全球短缺格局，铝价仍逢低看多

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The global aluminum supply-demand situation remains tight in the medium term, supporting the upward trend of aluminum prices. Short-term view is to buy on dips and be cautious about chasing high prices. For alumina, the price is expected to stay at a low level, and more attention should be paid to further capacity changes [3][99]. Summary by Directory Strategy Outlook - Aluminum - Derivatives: Temporarily on the sidelines [3]. - Macro: Trump's tariff policy on China has escalated, but there are signs of potential negotiation. The 20th Fourth Plenary Session will study the 15th Five-Year Plan [3]. - Industry Supply: Overseas, the first - phase of Indonesia's Juwon project with 250,000 - ton capacity is in production. In China, some projects are expected to start production by the end of the year, while others may face delays [3]. - Industry Demand: The average weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises is 62.5%, down 1.4 percentage points year - on - year. Different sub - industries show varying degrees of change in operating rates [3][64]. - Inventory: After the National Day holiday, aluminum ingot inventories increased seasonally but then decreased due to price adjustments. Overall inventory is expected to remain above 600,000 tons in the short term [3]. - Trading Logic: The panic caused by tariffs has improved, and the tight supply - demand situation supports the upward trend of aluminum prices. Short - term strategy is to buy on dips and be cautious about chasing high prices [3]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term, maintain the idea of buying on dips and be cautious about chasing high prices; arbitrage and options are temporarily on the sidelines [3]. Strategy Outlook - Alumina - Logic Analysis: The oversupply of alumina will become more prominent after the downstream electrolytic aluminum plants complete their stockpiling. Some producers have started minor production cuts, but it will take time to restore the supply - demand balance. The price is expected to stay at a low level [99]. - Trading Strategy: - Unilateral: Alumina price is expected to stay at a low level, and more attention should be paid to further capacity changes. - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines. - Options: Temporarily on the sidelines [100]. LME Market Performance - Includes data on aluminum ingot import and export profits, LME aluminum speculative fund net positions, LME aluminum price trends, overseas mainstream consumption area spot trade premiums, LME aluminum spot premiums and discounts, and LME aluminum inventories [5][7][9]. Domestic and Overseas Aluminum Inventory Performance - Covers aluminum ingot social inventories, aluminum rod social inventories, bonded area aluminum ingot inventories, aluminum ingot and aluminum rod weekly outbound volumes, and LME aluminum inventory seasonal charts [18][19][21]. Spread Situation - Analyzes price differences such as the Shanghai - Guangdong spread, mainstream consumption area basis, and differences between Shandong and East China aluminum prices [23]. Aluminum Primary Processing Product Processing Fees - Discusses processing fees for products like aluminum rods and aluminum plates in different regions, as well as the scrap - refined aluminum price difference [31][33][37]. Recycled Aluminum Alloy Market Situation - Covers waste aluminum production, ADC12 price, recycled aluminum alloy production, and related price differences and inventories [40][45][48]. Electrolytic Aluminum Supply Side - Analyzes China's electrolytic aluminum supply volume, production profit, net import volume, and the expected changes in domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity [52][54][58]. Aluminum Processing Operating Rate Situation - The average weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises is 62.5%, with different trends in various sub - industries [64]. Photovoltaic Component Production - In October, the expected photovoltaic component production is 51 - 52GW, with domestic production decreasing and overseas production remaining stable [68]. Automobile Sales - In 2025, China's total automobile sales are expected to reach 32.9 million, with significant growth in new energy vehicles, which will drive aluminum consumption [72]. Real Estate Completion - From January to August, the national housing completion area decreased by 17.0% year - on - year, indicating a weak real estate market [74]. Power Investment and Cable Consumption - As of September 2025, the domestic aluminum rod sample production capacity has expanded rapidly. Orders are expected to be saturated in the fourth quarter and next year, and the weekly operating rate in October is expected to remain stable or slightly increase [86]. Home Appliance Production Scheduling - In September 2025, the total production scheduling of three major white - goods decreased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the production scheduling of air conditioners is expected to decline in the future [90]. Export Trends - In August, the total export of aluminum products decreased year - on - year. Although the impact of tariffs has eased, the export volume is expected to decline this year [94]. Aluminum Supply - Demand Balance Outlook - Forecasts the global and Chinese aluminum supply - demand balance from 2018 to 2027, including production, demand, and balance [95]. Alumina - Strategy Outlook - Raw Material: Domestic bauxite supply in Shanxi and Henan is restricted by rain, while imported bauxite supply is increasing but the price remains stable [99]. - Supply: Some enterprises in Shanxi and Henan have carried out maintenance or production cuts. The national alumina operating capacity has decreased, and the import window has been open [99]. Alumina - Cost and Profit - In September 2025, the average profit of the alumina industry decreased. The profits of enterprises in different regions vary, and some high - cost regions are close to cash - cost losses [105][106]. Alumina - Production Capacity - The operating capacity of alumina has decreased marginally, with some enterprises in Shanxi and Henan adjusting production [110]. Alumina - Overseas Market - The overseas alumina transaction price is decreasing, and the import window remains open. More imported alumina is expected to arrive at ports by the end of the month [114]. Alumina - Futures Inventory - Alumina futures inventories continue to increase, with different inventory changes in various regions [118]. Bauxite - The price of bauxite remains stagnant. Domestic supply is affected by weather, and imported supply is increasing, but the price shows little change [121].