纯碱周报：基本面未见起色，价格持续承压-20251020

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soda ash market is expected to continue its weak and volatile pattern in the short term, with supply contraction providing some support but demand weakness restricting price increases. The core contradiction lies in the game between high inventory and weak demand. Future focus should be on the sustainability of inventory reduction and whether industry losses will lead to more production cuts [9][38]. - Operational suggestions include shorting on rallies for single - side trading, temporarily observing for arbitrage, and considering a bear spread option combination [39]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation (1) Production and Capacity Analysis - As of October 16, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 740,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 30,300 tons or 3.93%. Light soda ash production was 325,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,100 tons, and heavy soda ash production was 415,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,200 tons [10]. - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.48 percentage points. The ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 89.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.67 percentage points, and the combined soda process capacity utilization rate was 75.74%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.60 percentage points. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 87.94%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.23 percentage points [12]. (2) Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of October 16, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7005 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,900 tons or 0.94%. Light soda ash inventory was 759,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,800 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 940,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 900 tons [8][15]. (3) Shipment Situation Analysis - On October 16, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 699,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.56%. The overall shipment rate was 94.50%, a week - on - week increase of 2.27 percentage points [16]. (4) Profit Analysis - As of October 16, 2025, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash was - 29.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45 yuan/ton. The cost side had a narrow upward trend, and the soda ash price was weakly stable, so the profit of the ammonia - soda process continued to be weak [20]. - The theoretical profit (double - ton) of the combined soda process for soda ash was - 129.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 53 yuan/ton. The cost increased, the soda ash price was weakly stable, and the by - product ammonium chloride price declined, resulting in a significant decrease in the double - ton profit of the combined soda process [24]. 2. Downstream Industry Situation (1) Float Glass Industry Output - As of October 16, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 161,300 tons, the same as on the 9th. The weekly output from October 10 - 16, 2025 was 1.1289 million tons, the same as the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 0.62% [27]. (2) Float Glass Industry Inventory - As of October 16, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.276 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 1.452 million weight boxes or 2.31%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.14%. The inventory days were 27.3 days, an increase of 0.6 days from the previous period [31]. 3. Spot Market Situation - The price of动力煤(5500 kcal) increased by 2.55% to 723 yuan/ton; the price of原盐 - 井矿盐 in the East China region increased by 4% to 260 yuan/ton, while in the Northeast region it decreased by 3.7% to 1300 yuan/ton. Light soda ash prices in some regions such as Central China decreased, and heavy soda ash prices in some regions such as Northwest China decreased. The price of float glass decreased by 1.11% to 1246 yuan/ton, and the price of ammonium chloride decreased by 5.26% to 360 yuan/ton [37]. 4. Comprehensive Analysis - The soda ash market last week continued the pattern of weak supply and demand. Supply contracted, but demand was weak, and high - inventory pressure was not relieved. Profit conditions deteriorated further, and the core contradiction was the game between high inventory and weak demand [38].