Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current supply - demand situation of eggs is characterized by an overall loose pattern. In the short - term, egg supply shows no significant decline, demand has no sign of recovery, and the market is in a seasonal consumption slump after the National Day holiday, so both futures and spot prices may continue weak and volatile. In the medium - term, prices will be restricted until the inventory is reduced and demand recovers [8][62]. 3. Summary by Directory I.走势回顾 - Futures Price: Last week, the egg futures market was weak. The main contract was shifting to JD2512. As of last Friday's close, the main JD2511 contract was at 2,805 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 1.02%, with a trading volume of 157,777 lots and an open interest of 171,242 lots. The JD2512 contract was at 2,959 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 1.04% [5][14]. - Spot Price: Last week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.86 yuan per catty, and in the main selling areas was 2.91 yuan per catty. At the beginning of the week, due to continuous rain in many places, terminal demand was weak, and inventory increased, causing egg prices to fall below the feed cost line. In the middle of the week, as the weather improved, downstream replenishment increased, inventory decreased, and prices rebounded slightly, but the overall supply - demand situation remained loose [7][19]. - Chick Price: Last week, the average price of commercial chicks in key national regions was 2.76 yuan per chick, down 0.03 yuan per chick from the previous week, a month - on - month decline of 1.08% and a year - on - year decline of 23.12%. The chick market was oversupplied, and farmers' enthusiasm for replenishment was low [23]. - Old Hen Price: Last week, the average price of old hens in representative markets was 4.43 yuan per catty, down 0.14 yuan per catty, a decline of 3.06%. After the holiday, as egg prices weakened, farmers' enthusiasm for culling old hens increased. As prices fell to a low level, farmers became reluctant to sell, and the supply pressure eased [28]. II. Fundamental Analysis - Supply Side - Laying Hen Inventory: In September, the inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.313 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30% and a year - on - year increase of 8.87%. The number of newly - laid hens in October is expected to decline compared to September [31]. - Producing Area Shipment Volume: Last week, the shipment volume in the main producing areas was 6,015.19 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.09% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.94%. As egg prices fell, farmers were reluctant to sell at low prices, and some traders and cold storage started to stock up, leading to an increase in shipment volume [37]. - Old Hen Culling: Last week, the total culling volume of old hens in sample points was 600,100, a month - on - month increase of 2.81%. The average culling age was 497 days, 1 day earlier than the previous week. Farmers were not confident about the future market and culled old hens in a timely manner [41]. - Demand Side - Selling Area Sales Volume: Last week, egg sales were 6,207.55 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.25% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.18%. Sales were affected by the seasonal off - season. As prices fell to a low level, the market's bottom - fishing sentiment increased, and sales recovered moderately [45]. - Selling Area Arrival Volume: Last week, the arrival volume in the Beijing market was 92 trucks, a month - on - month increase of 6 trucks, an increase of 6.98%. The arrival volume in the Guangdong market was 453 trucks, a month - on - month decrease of 20 trucks, a decrease of 4.23%. The arrival volume in different markets showed differentiation [49]. - Old Hen Slaughter Volume: Last week, the total slaughter volume of old hens was 2.0717 million, a month - on - month decrease of 256,500, a decline of 11.02%. Slaughter enterprises operated cautiously. If terminal demand does not improve significantly, the slaughter volume may remain low in the short term [50][52]. - Inventory Situation: As of last Friday, the production - link inventory was 1.29 days, a decrease of 0.03 days from the previous day, a decrease of 2.27%. The circulation - link inventory was 1.29 days, a decrease of 0.11 days from the previous day, a decrease of 7.86% [56]. - Laying Hen Farming Cost and Profit: Last week, the cost of laying hen farming was 3.42 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 yuan per catty, a decline of 0.87%. The farming profit was - 0.56 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decrease of 0.26 yuan per catty, a decline of 86.67% [60]. III.后市展望 - In the short - term, egg supply shows no significant decline, demand has no sign of recovery, and the market is in a seasonal consumption slump after the National Day holiday, so both futures and spot prices may continue weak and volatile. In the medium - term, prices will be restricted until the inventory is reduced and demand recovers [8][62]. IV.操作策略 - Single - side: Hold short positions cautiously. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Construct a bear spread strategy [9][63].
供应过剩格局难改，蛋价承压下行
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-10-20 01:41