华龙期货铁矿周报-20251020

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★ [5] Core Viewpoints - Last week, the iron ore 2601 contract declined by 3.08%. Trade friction escalation increased market risk aversion. Future molten iron production is likely to decline from its high level, with the iron ore supply - demand balance weakening marginally. However, the downside space is expected to be limited, and iron ore is predicted to fluctuate [4][31]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and options trading, and adopt a strategy of going long on iron ore and short on rebar for arbitrage [5][32][33] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The iron ore 2601 contract dropped 3.08% last week [4] 2. Important Market Information - On October 15, the China Iron and Steel Association held a symposium. During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, domestic steel demand is expected to decline. There is a transition from production control to carbon emission control, and green steel structures should be promoted [13] 3. Supply - side Situation - In September, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 11,633 tons, an increase of 1,111 tons from the previous month, and the average import price was $96.95 per ton, up $4.23 from the previous month [17] - As of September 2025, Australia's iron ore shipment volume was 6,517.1 tons, an increase of 434.2 tons from the previous month, while Brazil's was 2,819.8 tons, a decrease of 415.9 tons from the first half of the month [21] 4. Demand - side Situation - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills, Tangshan blast furnace operating rate, and Shanghai terminal wire rod and rebar procurement volume are considered, but specific data trends are not fully detailed in the given text [22][27][28] 5. Fundamental Analysis - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.27%, unchanged from the previous week and up 2.59% year - on - year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.33%, down 0.22% from the previous week and up 2.34% year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 55.41%, down 0.87% from the previous week and down 19.05% year - on - year; the daily average molten iron output was 2.4095 million tons, a decrease of 0.0059 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 0.00659 million tons year - on - year [29] - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 142.7827 million tons, an increase of 2.5377 million tons from the previous week; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.1572 million tons, a decrease of 0.1128 million tons; the number of ships at ports increased by 23 [30] 6. Future Outlook - Due to the escalation of trade frictions last week, market risk aversion increased. Future molten iron production is likely to decline from its high level, the iron ore supply - demand balance will weaken marginally, but the downside space is limited, and iron ore is expected to fluctuate [31] 7. Trading Strategies - Single - side trading: Stay on the sidelines [32] - Arbitrage: Go long on iron ore and short on rebar [33] - Options trading: Stay on the sidelines [33]