美联储仍有降息预期，沪铜或震荡偏强运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are likely to show a mainly oscillating and moderately strengthening trend. There are limited arbitrage opportunities for Shanghai copper. It is recommended to mainly observe option contracts [3][41] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract CU2510 of Shanghai copper futures mainly showed a wide - range oscillating market, with prices ranging from around 82,635 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 86,755 yuan/ton [7] - Last week, the price of LME copper futures showed a wide - range oscillating trend, with contract prices running around 10,463 - 10,860 US dollars/ton [11] 2. Macroeconomic Aspect - In September 2025, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.3% year - on - year. From January to September, the average national consumer price decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period last year. In September, the national consumer price index increased by 0.1% month - on - month [2][14][40] - In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month [2][17][40] 3. Spot Analysis - As of October 17, 2025, the average price of Shanghai Wumaotong was 84,835 yuan/ton, and the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metal Market was 84,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 530 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [20] - As of October 17, 2025, the premium and discount of electrolytic copper remained at around an increase of 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [20] 4. Supply and Demand Situation - As of October 16, 2025, the rough smelting fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 40.8 US dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 4.08 US cents/pound [26] 5. Inventory Situation - As of October 17, 2025, the cathode copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 110,240 tons, an increase of 550 tons compared with the previous week [30] - As of October 16, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 137,450 tons, a decrease of 900 tons compared with the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts was 5.69% [30] - As of October 16, 2025, the COMEX copper inventory was 344,652 tons, an increase of 1,417 tons compared with the previous trading day [30] - As of October 16, 2025, the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 100,000 tons, the inventory in the Guangdong region was 26,400 tons, and the inventory in the Wuxi region was 37,600 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone increased by 1,300 tons compared with the previous week [30] 6. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - The Fed will discuss interest rate cuts again at the meeting on October 28 - 29. As of last weekend, the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in October reached 97.3% [2][40] - The price of domestic copper concentrates continues to decline, and the copper smelting processing fee remains at a historical low. The inventory of Shanghai copper has little change, and the inventory level is at a moderate position in recent years. The COMEX copper inventory continues to accumulate [2][40]