基本面驱动不明显，盘面或将震荡运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic natural rubber futures main contract prices oscillated downward last week with a relatively large overall decline. Due to the influence of the macro - aspect, market risk - aversion sentiment has increased, suppressing the overall atmosphere of commodities. At the same time, the downward pressure on oil prices has dragged down the chemical sector and the rubber price. Fundamentally, the support on the supply side has weakened, terminal consumption is performing well, and natural rubber inventory is continuously being depleted. It is expected that the market will likely oscillate at a low level in the short term [8][9][88][89] Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Analysis (1) Futures Price - Last week, the price of the natural rubber main contract RU2601 ranged between 14,690 - 15,300 yuan/ton, and the futures price oscillated downward with a relatively large overall decline. As of the close on the afternoon of Friday, October 17, 2025, the natural rubber main contract RU2601 closed at 14,695 yuan/ton, down 620 points for the week, a decline of 4.05% [6][13] (2) Spot Price - As of October 17, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,250 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai triple - smoked sheets (RSS3) was 18,800 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 14,950 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from last week. The Qingdao natural rubber arrival price was 2,050 US dollars/ton, down 70 US dollars/ton from last week [18][21] (3) Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the natural rubber main contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two has slightly shrunk compared to last week. As of October 17, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 445 yuan/ton, 220 yuan/ton smaller than last week. The domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber have both declined compared to last week [26][29] 2. Important Market Information - The US has stated that whether to impose a 100% tariff on China depends on China's actions. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has responded and urged the US to correct its wrong practices. The US President Trump has signed an executive order to impose new tariffs on imported medium - and heavy - duty trucks and parts, as well as on imported passenger cars. The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that economic activity has generally changed little, with a slight decline in overall consumer spending and stable employment levels. Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. The US Treasury's deficit in fiscal year 2025 has decreased compared to 2024, and net tariff revenue has increased. Economists have raised the growth expectations of the US economy for this year and next, but expect weak employment growth. The IMF has adjusted its world economic growth forecast. China's September financial data shows that M2 and M1 have increased year - on - year, and the "scissors gap" between M1 and M2 has reached a new low for the year. China's September CPI and PPI data show certain trends. China's September foreign trade data shows growth, and the export of rare earths has declined for three consecutive months. The equipment update of Chinese enterprises has accelerated, and the new energy vehicle sales have increased. The retail sales of the Chinese passenger car market in September have increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the sales of pickups, cars, new energy vehicles, and heavy - duty trucks in September have also shown different trends [30][31][32][33][34][35][36] 3. Supply - side Situation - As of August 31, 2025, the production in Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia's main producing areas has slightly decreased, while that in India, Vietnam, and China's main producing areas has slightly increased. The total production of natural rubber in the main producing countries in August 2025 was 987,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons or 6.47% from the previous month, with a slightly decreased growth rate. The monthly production of synthetic rubber in China in August 2025 was 740,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. The cumulative production of synthetic rubber in China as of August 31, 2025, was 5.848 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.9%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China as of August 31, 2025, was 9,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.58% [40][44][48][51] 4. Demand - side Situation - As of October 16, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 72.72%, an increase of 27.07% from last week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 64.52%, an increase of 20.56% from last week. As of September 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 3.2758 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 17.15% and a month - on - month increase of 16.35%. The monthly automobile sales were 3.2264 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.86% and a month - on - month increase of 12.94%. The monthly sales of heavy - duty trucks in China were 105,583 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 82.95% and a month - on - month increase of 15.24%. The monthly production of Chinese tire casings as of August 31, 2025, was 102.954 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China as of August 31, 2025, was 63.01 million pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 5.46% [54][58][61][67][70][76] 5. Inventory - side Situation - As of October 17, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 135,000 tons, a decrease of 9,390 tons from last week. As of October 12, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.08 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,700 tons or 0.7%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 660,000 tons, a decrease of 0.08%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 420,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%. As of October 12, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 456,000 tons, a decrease of 500 tons or 0.11% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 70,800 tons, an increase of 2.02%; the general trade inventory was 385,200 tons, a decrease of 0.49% [85] 6. Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, the global natural rubber producing areas are still in the peak supply season. Although there was some support from the cost side due to weather disturbances in the early stage, as the weather impact weakens, there is a strong expectation of increased supply, and the supply support weakens. In September 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber totaled 742,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 78,000 tons or 11.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 128,000 tons or 20.8%. From January to September this year, China's cumulative imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 6.115 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 986,000 tons or 19.2%. On the demand side, the operating rates of tire enterprises rebounded significantly last week. The inventory of semi - steel tires is still high, and the demand remains rigid; all - steel tires perform relatively stably. In the terminal automobile market, in September, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The monthly sales of heavy - duty trucks in China increased significantly year - on - year. From January to September 2025, China's rubber tire exports totaled 7.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%. In terms of inventory, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased significantly last week, and China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to decline slightly month - on - month [86][87] 7.后市展望 - The domestic natural rubber futures main contract prices oscillated downward last week with a relatively large overall decline. In the future, due to macro - factors such as the US government's "shutdown" and tariff policy uncertainties, market risk - aversion sentiment has increased, suppressing the overall atmosphere of commodities. On the supply side, weather disturbances in Southeast Asian main producing areas have affected the tapping progress, boosting raw material prices, but as the weather impact weakens, there is a strong expectation of increased supply, and the supply support weakens. The import volume of natural rubber in September increased slightly year - on - year and month - on - month. On the demand side, the operating rates of tire enterprises rebounded significantly last week. The inventory of semi - steel tires is still high, and the demand remains rigid; all - steel tires perform relatively stably. In the terminal automobile market, in September, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The monthly sales of heavy - duty trucks in China increased significantly year - on - year. From January to September 2025, China's rubber tire exports increased slightly year - on - year. In terms of inventory, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased significantly last week, and China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao continued to decline slightly month - on - month. Overall, due to macro - factors and the downward pressure on oil prices, the rubber price is dragged down. Fundamentally, the supply - side support weakens, terminal consumption is okay, and the natural rubber inventory is continuously being depleted. It is expected that the market will likely oscillate at a low level in the short term. Key points to focus on in the future include the Sino - US tariff game, weather disturbances in rubber main producing areas, changes in terminal demand, and the progress of zero - tariff policies [88][89][90] 8. Views and Operational Strategies - This week's view: It is expected that the natural rubber futures main contract will likely oscillate in the short term. Operational strategies: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see and maintain an interval - trading mindset; for arbitrage, consider a positive - arbitrage approach; for options, wait and see for the time being [91][92]