乐观氛围支撑，煤焦偏强运行：焦煤焦炭周报-20251020

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Coke: With strong cost support, coke is in a strong and volatile state. The spot price of coking coal at the cost end is firm, leading to a slight contraction in coke enterprise profits. Some coke enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices for the second round, but downstream steel mills also have meager profits, increasing industry stalemate. Coke maintains a pattern of both supply and demand decline, with a more obvious reduction on the supply side this week. The inventory of coke in the industrial chain has decreased. The upward driving force mainly comes from the supply support of coking coal at the cost end and the expectation of policy benefits [4][42][44]. - Coking Coal: Strong expectations still exist, and coking coal is operating strongly. This week, the supply of coking coal increased while the demand decreased, and the fundamentals weakened marginally. However, the release of downstream procurement demand in the spot market supported the price. The inventory of coking coal has shifted downstream. Although the fundamentals of coking coal lack support, recent weather and anti - involution impacts in the main production areas have driven the main contract of coking coal futures to maintain a strong and volatile operation [5][45]. Summary by Directory 1 Market Review 1.1 Spot Market - Coke: The current price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke for平仓 is 1,520 yuan/ton, with no weekly change, a monthly increase of 3.40%, an annual decrease of 10.06%, and a year - on - year decrease of 21.65%. The current price of Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke for出库 is 1,460 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.39%, no monthly change, an annual decrease of 9.88%, and a year - on - year decrease of 20.65% [7]. - Coking Coal: The current price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 1,260 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.56%, a monthly decrease of 1.56%, an annual increase of 6.78%, and a year - on - year decrease of 20.25%. The current price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,540 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.32%, a monthly decrease of 4.35%, an annual increase of 3.36%, and a year - on - year decrease of 16.76%. The current price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,660 yuan/ton, with no weekly change, a monthly decrease of 2.92%, an annual increase of 8.50%, and a year - on - year decrease of 14.87% [7]. 1.2 Futures Market - The report provides the period - to - spot price difference charts of coke 01 and 05 contracts, as well as coking coal 01 and 05 contracts, but does not provide specific data analysis [13][15][16]. 2 Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Supply Side - Coke: As of October 17, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants was 73.99%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.96% and a year - on - year increase of 0.15%. The daily coke output was 52.18 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.68 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.36 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mill coking plants was 84.72%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.81% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.78%. The daily output was 45.94 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.91 tons [17]. - Coking Coal: As of October 17, the operating rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 35.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.50%. The daily output of clean coal was 26.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.40 tons, and the clean coal inventory was 290.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.20 tons. The operating rate of 523 coking coal mines was 87.30%, a week - on - week increase of 5.40% and a year - on - year increase of 0.10%. The daily output of clean coal in mines was 77.90 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.70 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.60 tons [21]. 2.2 Demand Side - Coke: As of October 17, the profitability rate of steel mills was 55.41%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.05%. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.33%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22% and a year - on - year increase of 2.34%. The blast furnace operating rate was 84.27%, with no week - on - week change and a year - on - year increase of 2.59%. The daily hot metal output was 240.95 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.59 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.59 tons [23]. - Coking Coal: As of October 17, the total inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 997.37 tons, with available days of 11.5 days, corresponding to a daily coking coal consumption of 86.73 tons, a day - on - day decrease of 1.26 tons. The inventory of 247 steel mills was 788.32 tons, with available days of 12.9 days, corresponding to a daily consumption of 61.11 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.59 tons. The total daily consumption was 147.84 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.85 tons [26]. 2.3 Inventory - Coke: As of October 17, the coke inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 37.59 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.0 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.5 tons. The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 57.29 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.6 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 14.8 tons. The inventory of 247 steel mills was 639.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.4 tons and a year - on - year increase of 76.5 tons. The total inventory of four major ports was 195.15 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.9 tons [28]. - Coking Coal: As of October 17, the clean coal inventory of 523 coking coal mines was 205.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.50 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 55.00 tons. The coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 997.37 tons, a week - on - week increase of 38.31 tons and a year - on - year increase of 39.91 tons. The total port inventory was 272.71 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22.28 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 137.85 tons. The inventory of 247 steel mills was 788.32 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.19 tons and a year - on - year increase of 52.66 tons [36]. 2.4 Coking Profit - As of October 17, the profit per ton of coke for 30 sample coking enterprises was - 13 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 22 yuan/ton [41]. 3 Conclusion - Coke: Due to the firm spot price of coking coal at the cost end, the profits of coking enterprises have slightly shrunk this week. Coke maintains a pattern of both supply and demand decline, with a more obvious reduction on the supply side. The inventory of coke in the industrial chain has decreased. The upward driving force mainly comes from the supply support of coking coal at the cost end and the expectation of policy benefits [42][44]. - Coking Coal: This week, the supply of coking coal increased while the demand decreased, and the fundamentals weakened marginally. However, the release of downstream procurement demand in the spot market supported the price. The inventory of coking coal has shifted downstream. Although the fundamentals of coking coal lack support, recent weather and anti - involution impacts in the main production areas have driven the main contract of coking coal futures to maintain a strong and volatile operation [45].