短期内股指宽幅震荡为主

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Futures: In the short term, the stock index will mainly experience wide - range fluctuations. Last week, all stock indices fluctuated and declined, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 experiencing relatively large declines. Overseas uncertainty risk factors have increased recently, and the risk - aversion sentiment has risen. Stocks with large previous gains face technical adjustment pressure due to profit - taking. Macroeconomically, the inflation and credit data in September were weak, strengthening the expectation of future policy - driven demand - stabilizing measures, which provides long - term support for the stock index. A major policy meeting will be held from October 20th to 23rd, with a high certainty of policy - driven demand and expectation stabilization. Overall, the subsequent market trend depends on the rhythm of the game between profit - taking sentiment and policy - driven positive expectations [3][81]. - ETF Options and Stock Index Options: Maintain a bull spread in the long term. The implied volatility of options has been relatively stable. Since the probability of the stock index rising in the long term is high, one can hold a bull spread or a ratio spread for a moderately bullish position [4][82]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Stock Index Trends - Last week, all stock indices fluctuated and declined, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 having relatively large declines. Overseas uncertainty risk factors have increased recently, and the risk - aversion sentiment has risen. Stocks with large previous gains face technical adjustment pressure due to profit - taking. Macroeconomically, the inflation and credit data in September were weak, strengthening the expectation of future policy - driven demand - stabilizing measures, which provides long - term support for the stock index. A major policy meeting will be held from October 20th to 23rd, with a high certainty of policy - driven demand and expectation stabilization. The subsequent market trend depends on the rhythm of the game between profit - taking sentiment and policy - driven positive expectations [9]. 3.1.2 Option Price Trends - This week, the 50ETF had a weekly decline of 1.90%, closing at 3.045; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) had a weekly decline of 0.37%, closing at 4.604; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) had a weekly decline of 0.46%, closing at 4.747; the CSI 300 Index had a weekly decline of 0.44%, closing at 4501.92; the CSI 1000 Index had a weekly increase of 0.21%, closing at 7438.19; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) had a weekly increase of 0.26%, closing at 7.261; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) had a weekly increase of 0.24%, closing at 2.903; the ChiNext ETF had a weekly increase of 2.24%, closing at 3.062; the Shenzhen 100ETF had a weekly increase of 1.85%, closing at 3.475; the SSE 50 Index had a weekly decline of 1.98%, closing at 2909.74; the STAR 50ETF had a weekly increase of 1.78%, closing at 1.43; the E Fund STAR 50ETF had a weekly increase of 1.90%, closing at 1.40 [17]. 3.1.3 Futures Basis and Monthly Spreads - The basis of the four stock index futures varieties: The basis of IF and IH is at a normal quantile level, while IM and IC show a significant backwardation in the far - month futures. The inter - period spreads of IC and IM futures have declined, indicating a decrease in the market's short - term risk preference for IC and IM [23]. 3.2 Option Indicators 3.2.1 PCR Indicators - The trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 113.82, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 78.41; the open - interest PCR was 71.82, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 70.73. The trading volume PCR of SSE 300ETF options was 153.61, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 110.31; the open - interest PCR was 110.15, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 106.38. The trading volume PCR of Shenzhen 300ETF options was 73.47, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 72.84; the open - interest PCR was 98.99, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 92.75. The trading volume PCR of CSI 300 Index options was 64.59, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 67.07; the open - interest PCR was 74.10, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 81.48. The trading volume PCR of CSI 1000 Index options was 85.53, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 84.96; the open - interest PCR was 93.89, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 110.83. The trading volume PCR of SSE CSI 500ETF options was 139.83, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 102.40; the open - interest PCR was 133.60, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 130.18. The trading volume PCR of Shenzhen CSI 500ETF options was 143.53, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 94.41; the open - interest PCR was 83.96, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 84.33. The trading volume PCR of ChiNext ETF options was 89.29, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 86.21; the open - interest PCR was 134.79, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 134.46. The trading volume PCR of Shenzhen 100ETF options was 410.60, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 126.21; the open - interest PCR was 127.97, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 121.02. The trading volume PCR of SSE 50 Index options was 67.73, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 56.08; the open - interest PCR was 60.10, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 60.46. The trading volume PCR of STAR 50ETF options was 118.88, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 103.93; the open - interest PCR was 107.09, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 107.32. The trading volume PCR of E Fund STAR 50ETF options was 83.92, and the previous trading day's volume PCR was 84.17; the open - interest PCR was 93.29, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 91.94 [34]. 3.2.2 Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of SSE 50ETF options in October 2025 was 16.72%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.73%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of SSE 300ETF options in October 2025 was 17.48%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.28%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of Shenzhen 300ETF options in October 2025 was 18.41%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.24%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of CSI 300 Index options in October 2025 was 17.88%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.24%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of CSI 1000 Index options in October 2025 was 23.62%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.03%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of SSE CSI 500ETF options in October 2025 was 22.44%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.22%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of Shenzhen CSI 500ETF options in October 2025 was 22.75%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 22.16%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of ChiNext ETF options in October 2025 was 37.73%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 37.69%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of Shenzhen 100ETF options in October 2025 was 23.32%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 24.08%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of SSE 50 Index options in October 2025 was 17.53%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 15.77%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of STAR 50ETF options in October 2025 was 44.27%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 44.44%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options of E Fund STAR 50ETF options in October 2025 was 43.69%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying was 44.55% [54]. 3.3 Conclusion - Futures: In the short term, the stock index will mainly experience wide - range fluctuations. Last week, all stock indices fluctuated and declined, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 experiencing relatively large declines. Overseas uncertainty risk factors have increased recently, and the risk - aversion sentiment has risen. Stocks with large previous gains face technical adjustment pressure due to profit - taking. Macroeconomically, the inflation and credit data in September were weak, strengthening the expectation of future policy - driven demand - stabilizing measures, which provides long - term support for the stock index. A major policy meeting will be held from October 20th to 23rd, with a high certainty of policy - driven demand and expectation stabilization. Overall, the subsequent market trend depends on the rhythm of the game between profit - taking sentiment and policy - driven positive expectations [81]. - ETF Options and Stock Index Options: Maintain a bull spread in the long term. The implied volatility of options has been relatively stable. Since the probability of the stock index rising in the long term is high, one can hold a bull spread or a ratio spread for a moderately bullish position [82].