Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall economic situation shows a stable and slightly upward trend, but there are still uncertainties. Fiscal policy may enter a bottleneck period, and there is a strong need for monetary policy to be further loosened in the fourth quarter. - Different industries have different market trends and investment opportunities. For example, in the black industry, steel may experience shock adjustments, while coal and coke may continue to be shock - strong in the short term; in the agricultural product industry, cotton and sugar face supply - side pressure, while eggs have a high - inventory and weak - demand situation. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - On October 18, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call and agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [8]. - The State Council executive meeting deployed measures to expand green trade and studied agricultural production work, and proposed to promote cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement in logistics [8]. - The opening ceremony of the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference is scheduled for October 27, with central bank and regulatory leaders attending and relevant policies to be released [8]. - In the first three quarters, national fiscal revenue was 16.39 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%, and fiscal expenditure was 20.81 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [8]. - The Ministry of Finance will arrange 500 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit for local use and will advance the release of the new local government debt limit for 2026 [9]. - NVIDIA has completely left the Chinese market due to US export controls [9]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the price limit and margin ratio of gold and silver futures contracts from October 21 [9]. - US President Trump admitted that the strategy of threatening China with high tariffs is unsustainable and may impact the US economy [9]. - Trump signed an executive order to impose new tariffs on imported medium and heavy - duty trucks and parts from November 1 [10]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The A - share market declined on Friday, with popular sectors such as new energy and AI performing weakly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.95% to 3839.76 points, and the daily trading volume was 1.95 trillion yuan. The CSI 300, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index also declined [12]. - Inflation data was basically in line with expectations. Food prices dragged down CPI, with pork prices dropping 17.0%. Core CPI rose to 1.0%. PPI improvement was unbalanced, and domestic oil - related industries' prices declined due to falling international oil prices [12]. - Financial data showed that social financing continued to decline, M2 decreased significantly, while M1 increased substantially, and credit was weak. Fiscal policy may face a bottleneck, and there is a strong need for monetary policy to be loosened in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to consider buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation [12][13]. Treasury Bond Futures - The capital market was moderately loose, and the bond market was optimistic due to concerns about the US credit market. Inflation and financial data were similar to those of stock index futures. It is recommended to adopt a shock - rising strategy and pay attention to the odds of short - term bonds [14][15]. Black Industry Steel and Iron Ore - The improvement in steel apparent demand led to a small rebound in black commodities, but market transactions were weak, and prices remained weak. Considering macro factors, trade frictions may cool down, and the impact of policies before the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is limited. The market should focus on supply - demand fundamentals [15]. - In terms of supply - demand, real - estate sales and new construction were weak, infrastructure projects had capital pressure, and overall building material demand was weak. However, the demand for rolled plates was acceptable, but high inventories of galvanized and cold - rolled products affected steel valuations. Steel may experience shock adjustments, and iron ore short positions can be reduced on dips [15][16]. Coal and Coke - Short - term coal and coke supply gradually recovered, but "anti - involution" and environmental protection restrictions still existed, and futures prices continued to fluctuate at high levels. Under policy constraints, coal supply contraction expectations were strengthened, but weak steel mill profits and less - than - ideal peak - season demand restricted the upward space. Double - coke prices may continue to be shock - strong in the short term [17]. Ferroalloys - On the 17th, ferrosilicon fluctuated widely at high levels, and ferromanganese silicon's center moved further down. From the perspective of supply - demand and cost support, ferrosilicon was stronger than ferromanganese silicon. The reasonable valuation range of the 01 spread between the two was between - 450 and - 250 yuan/ton. There is no clear unilateral strategy [18]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Due to the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions, market risk aversion increased. Aluminum demand was resilient, and inventory was good. It is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate at high levels, and it is recommended to sell on rallies. Alumina had some production cuts due to losses, but the total output and inventory were still high. It is expected to continue to bottom out, and it is recommended to sell on rallies when the futures price is at a premium [21]. Shanghai Zinc - On the night of the 17th, Shanghai zinc prices weakened. The main reasons were repeated domestic inventories and lack of market guidance, and spot transactions were poor. Overseas prices were strong due to the continuous decline of LME inventories. It is recommended to hold short positions [22]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate supply showed an increasing trend, and short - term destocking supported prices. However, the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow, and it will mainly oscillate in the short term [23]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon's supply - demand contradiction was not prominent. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range due to the expected increase in production by leading manufacturers and the expected reduction in production by polysilicon manufacturers during the dry season. Polysilicon's spot price was firm, and it is expected to continue to oscillate within a narrow range, with the upper limit depending on the implementation of capacity - merger policies [24]. Agricultural Products Cotton - ICE cotton prices rebounded slightly due to signs of easing trade tensions, but demand concerns still existed due to the US government shutdown. Domestic cotton prices rebounded due to rising raw cotton prices, but supply pressure limited the rebound space. It is recommended to sell on rallies [26][27]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar prices fell under pressure, and domestic sugar prices were under pressure due to global sugar supply surplus and increased domestic imports. However, the cost provided some support. It is recommended to use a short - selling rolling strategy [27][28]. Eggs - Egg spot prices were stable and weak, and futures prices continued to decline slightly. The high inventory of laying hens and slow capacity reduction made it difficult to change the supply - demand pattern in the short term. It is recommended to sell on rallies for near - month contracts [29][30]. Apples - The prices of late - maturing Fuji apples in the eastern and western regions were stable, and the futures market oscillated strongly. It is expected to continue to oscillate [30][31]. Corn - The decline in domestic corn spot prices slowed down, and futures prices rose and then fell. New - season corn supply increased, putting pressure on prices. However, purchases by some state - owned grain depots may support prices. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 07 contract or sell out - of - the - money call options for the 01 contract [31][32]. Red Dates - The market price of red dates was stable, and the futures market showed a strong trend. It is recommended to wait and see [33]. Pigs - Pig prices fluctuated at the bottom. Supply pressure continued, but factors stabilizing prices increased. It is recommended to hold short positions in near - month contracts and pay attention to the 1 - 3 positive spread strategy [34]. Energy and Chemical Industry Crude Oil - Although the Russia - Ukraine situation may ease, geopolitical uncertainties still exist, and international oil prices rose. However, due to increasing supply and weakening demand, oil prices are expected to decline steadily. It is recommended to hold existing short positions [34][35]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices fluctuated with crude oil prices. The supply was loose, and the demand was weak. It is expected to continue to fluctuate with oil prices [36][37]. Plastics - Polyolefins had high supply pressure and weak demand. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to reduce short positions at the current low - valuation level and wait for a rebound to re - enter short positions [38]. Rubber - The international economic outlook was uncertain, and the commodity sector was weak. NR was relatively stronger than RU due to warehouse - receipt issues. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up and consider selling call options on RU after a rebound [39]. Methanol - Methanol prices fluctuated greatly due to the game around the arrival of Iranian goods. Although the current situation is weak, there are positive factors such as winter gas restrictions. It is recommended to adopt a weak - shock strategy and wait for a rebound to enter long positions [40][42]. Caustic Soda - In the spot market, the prices of different concentrations of caustic soda in Shandong changed differently, and the futures market declined due to rumors of alumina production cuts. It is recommended to maintain a shock - strong strategy [40][41]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices fluctuated with crude oil prices. The market was cautious due to uncertainties before the Sino - US summit. Asphalt's fundamentals were stable, and it is expected to follow oil prices [43]. Polyester Industry Chain - Polyester product prices declined due to rising Sino - US trade tensions and falling oil prices. Although trade tensions may ease, the supply - demand situation has not improved. It is expected to rebound in the short term but remain pessimistic in the long term [44]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - LPG prices declined. The supply was abundant, and the demand was expected to weaken. It is recommended to maintain a short - term weak strategy relative to crude oil and a long - term short strategy [45]. Paper - related Industries Offset Printing Paper - In the off - season, factory ex - factory prices were lowered, and market transactions were based on rigid demand. With the resumption of production by Chenming, supply may be excessive, but the low - valuation futures market may support prices. It is recommended to try long positions near the production cost or sell put options [46]. Pulp - Pulp spot prices were stable. European inventory increased, and consumption also changed. The futures market was under pressure but had some support. It is recommended to observe port destocking and spot transactions and consider buying long - term 01 contracts on dips [47]. Logs - Log spot prices were stable, but demand from sawmills was weak. Supply pressure increased due to expected concentrated arrivals. It is recommended to observe the market and be cautious when trading [48]. Other Industries Urea - Urea spot prices were stable, and the market was weak. Futures prices were relatively strong due to expectations of increased export quotas. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [49]. Synthetic Rubber - The inventory of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber increased, and prices were under pressure. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [50].
中泰期货晨会纪要-20251020
Zhong Tai Qi Huo·2025-10-20 01:36