铅锌日评：沪铅或有承压，沪锌关注海外结构性风险-20251020

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For lead, the supply - tight situation has improved, some demand was released in mid - late September, there is significant pressure for lead ingot inventory accumulation, and prices may face downward pressure. For zinc, the fundamental situation remains one of strong supply and weak demand, prices are under pressure, and there is a need to be vigilant about overseas structural risks. The trading strategy for both is to wait and see for now [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - On October 20, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,900 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 17,075 yuan/ton, down 0.15% [1] - The trading volume of the active futures contract was 39,642 lots, up 22.95%; the open interest was 40,218 lots, down 4.01% [1] - LME inventory was 250,400 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 32,082 tons, up 0.23% [1] Industry News - From October 10 to October 16, the weekly operating rate of primary lead enterprises was 66.64%, down 1.8 percentage points; that of secondary lead enterprises was 35.1%, up 1.1 percentage points; that of lead - acid battery enterprises was 74.97%, up 13.26 percentage points [1] - In Haikou, Hainan, the electric bicycles registered during the transition period have all expired, and their license plates and electronic driving licenses will be cancelled [1] Fundamental Analysis - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the operation of primary lead has small fluctuations. For secondary lead, the previously shut - down refineries are gradually resuming production [1] - The terminal market shows no significant improvement, the peak - season effect is not obvious, and dealers mainly digest inventory. Production enterprises produce according to sales. Attention should be paid to the pre - holiday inventory preparation of downstream enterprises [1] Zinc Price and Market Data - On October 20, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 21,780 yuan/ton, down 0.32% from the previous day; the closing price of the main futures contract was 21,815 yuan/ton, down 0.57% [1] - The trading volume of the active futures contract was 88,687 lots, down 3.54%; the open interest was 77,222 lots, down 11.32% [1] - LME inventory was 38,025 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 67,317 tons, down 0.22% [1] Industry News - From October 10 to October 16, the weekly operating rate of galvanizing enterprises was 58.05%, up 11.22 percentage points; that of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 54.63%, up 8.12 percentage points; that of zinc oxide enterprises was 57.13%, up 1.05 percentage points [1] - In August 2025, Peru's zinc concentrate production was 146,700 tons, up 17.2% month - on - month and 29.2% year - on - year. From January to August, the total production was 987,100 tons, up 16.1% year - on - year [1] Fundamental Analysis - Refineries have sufficient raw material inventory, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees decreased last week, and imported zinc ore processing fees increased. Due to the low domestic - to - foreign price ratio, refineries mainly purchase domestic ore, and domestic TC may continue to decline in October [1] - Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and production is increasing. There is no significant improvement in demand, and the zinc ingot export window may open as the Shanghai - London ratio continues to deteriorate [1]