碳酸锂周报：终端消费热度升温，锂价震荡上行-20251020

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, lithium carbonate showed a stable start after the holiday, with terminal consumption hitting new highs, and both spot and exchange inventories declined. The market's bullish sentiment emerged, leading to a significant rise in the market at the end of the week. Fundamentally, there are signs of marginal improvement, indicating an increase in downstream consumption after the holiday [4]. - In the later stage, the fundamentals are showing marginal improvement, and lithium prices are expected to be volatile and bullish, but the upside space is limited. The supply is expected to remain high, and the demand still has an incremental expectation, but the sustainability of its strength is questionable. Technically, there is resistance above 75,000 yuan [4][14]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The prices of imported lithium raw ore, imported lithium concentrate, and domestic lithium concentrate decreased, while the battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price, lithium carbonate main contract price, and the prices of cobalt - acid lithium and ternary materials increased. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot price dropped to 0, and the battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse - grained) price slightly decreased. The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 0.81% [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - Regulatory and Delivery: As of October 17, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 30,686 lots, with the latest matching transaction price at 76,180 yuan/ton. The positions of the main contract 2511 were 159,000 lots [7]. - Supply Side: As of October 17, the weekly output of lithium carbonate was 22,765 tons, an increase of 326 tons from the previous period. Low - cost production capacity is still being gradually put into operation, and African lithium resources inflow has further increased [7]. - Lithium Salt Import: In August, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,847 tons, a month - on - month increase of 58% and a year - on - year increase of 25%. The import average price decreased by about 14% compared with the previous period [8]. - Lithium Ore Import: In August, the total import of lithium ore was about 619,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.51%. The imports from different countries showed different trends [9]. - Demand Side - Downstream Cathode Materials: As of October 17, the production and prices of phosphoric acid iron - lithium and ternary materials increased, and the inventory decreased. The installed capacity of iron - lithium batteries accounted for nearly 80%, and the inventory of iron - lithium cathode materials decreased significantly, indicating good terminal consumption [10]. - New Energy Vehicles: From October 1 - 12, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market were 367,000 units. New policies on vehicle purchase tax exemption and replacement and scrapping subsidies have been introduced [11][12]. - Inventory: As of September 26, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by about 1,044 tons compared with the previous period [13]. This Week's Outlook - Terminal consumption is heating up, and lithium prices are expected to be volatile and bullish, but the upside space is limited due to resistance from both fundamentals and technical aspects [14]. Industry News - Hainan Mining's Mali Buguni lithium ore project shipped its first batch of 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate [15]. - Jinyuan Co., Ltd.'s Baqiancuo Salt Lake lithium extraction project is in the trial - production stage, and the Argentina Carlo project is still in the exploration stage [15].