供应压力不减，氧化铝难改弱势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina is expected to continue its weak performance due to high operating rates, significant supply pressure, and increasing social and warehouse inventories. However, with sporadic production cuts and the futures main contract approaching the average cash cost line, the downside space may be limited. Future focus should be on alumina production cuts and winter storage in the northwest region [2][5][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Category | 2025/10/10 | 2025/10/17 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 2856 | 2800 | -56 | Yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 2992 | 2956 | -36 | Yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 180 | 187 | 7 | Yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 324 | 319 | -5 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | 100.02 | 101.91 | 1.9 | Yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse Inventory | 176029 | 221262 | 45233 | Tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 0 | 0 | 0 | Tons | | Bauxite (Shanxi 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Henan 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 590 | 590 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guangxi 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guizhou 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF Bauxite | 73.5 | 73.5 | 0 | US dollars/ton | [3] 3.2 Market Review - Alumina futures' main contract dropped 1.96% last week, closing at 2800 Yuan/ton. The national weighted - average spot price on Friday was 2956 Yuan/ton, down 36 Yuan/ton from the previous week [5] - In the bauxite market, northern regions (Shanxi and Henan) faced a large supply gap due to low mine operating rates. Southern regions' supply remained stable. Imported ore arrivals decreased, and port inventories declined but stayed above 30 million tons. The falling alumina price increased cost pressure on enterprises, reducing their enthusiasm for importing ore and pressuring imported ore prices [5] - On the supply side, alumina supply slightly decreased as an enterprise in Shanxi started minor production cuts due to ore shortages. Although some enterprises were close to losses, few took production - cut measures, and the reduction in production capacity was limited, providing insufficient support for alumina prices. As of October 16, China's alumina installed capacity was 114.8 million tons, with an operating capacity of 96.3 million tons and an operating rate of 83.89% [5] - On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises had no plans to increase or decrease production, and the industry's supply remained stable, with no significant change in the demand for alumina. Northwest electrolytic aluminum plants conducted regular tender purchases, and some plants made small - scale spot purchases to replenish inventories. Transaction prices mostly continued the trend of trading at a discount [5] - In terms of inventory, last Friday, alumina futures' warehouse receipts inventory increased by 110,000 tons to 221,000 tons, while factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons [6] 3.3 Market Outlook - From the perspective of the ore end, domestic ore is in short supply, and its price increase is restricted by the falling alumina price. Imported ore supply is generally abundant, although affected by the rainy season in Guinea, and its price is under pressure. On the supply side, an alumina enterprise in Shanxi has started minor production cuts due to ore issues, expected to affect a production capacity of 400,000 tons. Other alumina plants are not very willing to cut production due to factors such as long - term contract negotiations and the monthly average alumina price not reaching the cash - loss level, and no large - scale production - cut plans are seen for now [2][5][8] - On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises have no plans to increase or decrease production, and the industry's supply remains stable, with no significant change in the demand for alumina [2][5][8] - The warehouse receipts inventory increased by 110,000 tons during the week to 221,000 tons, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons. Overall, alumina still maintains a high operating rate, and the supply pressure remains significant. Social and warehouse receipts inventories are at high levels and continue to accumulate. Alumina is expected to continue its weak performance. However, with sporadic production cuts and the futures main contract approaching the average cash cost line of the alumina industry, the downside space may be limited [2][5][8] 3.4 Industry News - In Guinea, workers at the CBK aluminum mine company launched an indefinite general strike due to dissatisfaction with the management's "neglect of employee rights," demanding the implementation of the national mining industry collective labor agreement and the removal of the company's general manager, Peter Gaevskiy [8] - Australia's Canyon Resources plans to invest a total of 447 million US dollars in developing the Mimeta bauxite mine in Cameroon. Over 70% of the funds (about 176.8 million Central African francs) will be used for purchasing railway equipment, including ordering 22 locomotives from CRRC and 560 open - top wagons from India's Texmaco to meet the annual transportation demand of 10 million tons of ore [8]