黄金、白银期货品种周报-20251020

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold: The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel, currently possibly at the end of the trend. In the short - term, the market may maintain high - level oscillations. In the long - term, the long - term support factors remain unchanged, and gold has a solid foundation for long - term growth. It is recommended to wait and see in the medium - term, and for the current week, the main gold contract 2512 is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level, and it is advisable to buy on dips [7][8][11]. - Silver: The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is in a strong upward stage, currently at the end of the trend. In the short - term, it is necessary to be vigilant against fluctuations caused by high - level profit - taking and the easing of the geopolitical situation. In the long - term, the upward logic remains unchanged, and the silver price is expected to continue the upward trend in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to wait and see in the medium - term, and for the current week, silver is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level, and it is advisable to buy on dips [32][33][37]. 3. Summary by Catalog Gold Futures - Mid - line Market Analysis - Trend Judgment: The overall trend of Shanghai gold futures is in an upward channel, currently possibly at the end of the trend [7]. - Trend Logic: Last week, the gold price continued to soar under multiple positive factors, but there was an obvious correction on Friday. This week, the market may maintain high - level oscillations. In the long - term, factors such as continuous gold purchases by global central banks, damage to the US dollar credit system, and the continuation of the monetary easing cycle support the long - term rise of gold [7]. - Mid - line Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: For the gold contract 2512, be vigilant against technical corrections caused by the departure of profit - taking orders, with the lower support level at 898 - 903, and it was recommended to wait and see [10]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The main gold contract 2512 is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the upper resistance level at 985 - 1000 and the lower support level at 950 - 965 [11]. - Related Data Situation - Data on the price trends of Shanghai gold and COMEX gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury bond yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference are presented in graphical form [19][22][24] Silver Futures - Mid - line Market Analysis - Trend Judgment: The overall trend of Shanghai silver futures is in a strong upward stage, currently at the end of the trend [32]. - Trend Logic: Last week, silver reached a phased high, driven by factors such as structural shortages in the London spot market, strengthened expectations of Fed interest rate cuts, continuous reduction of domestic inventories, and increased capital activity. In the long - term, the upward logic remains unchanged, and the silver price is expected to continue the upward trend in the fourth quarter, but short - term fluctuations need attention [32]. - Mid - line Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [33]. - Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: It was expected that silver would mainly oscillate at a high level, and it was recommended to buy on dips, with the lower support range at 10700 - 11000 [36]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: Silver is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the lower support range at 10940 - 11240 [37]. - Related Data Situation - Data on the price trends of Shanghai silver and COMEX silver, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference are presented in graphical form [44][46][48]