铅周报：货源偏紧有望改善，铅价存调整压力-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lead ore and scrap batteries remains tight, providing good bottom support at the cost end. However, from mid - to late October, some electrolytic lead and secondary lead smelters will resume production, and there is an expectation of imported crude lead arriving, so the supply will increase marginally. On the demand side, the peak season for battery replacement in electric bicycles is coming to an end, and battery exports are still affected by tariffs and anti - dumping policies, so consumption is relatively flat. Overall, it is expected that lead prices will adjust weakly in a volatile manner [5][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Points - Macroscopically, there is still uncertainty in Sino - US trade friction, the market pays attention to its subsequent development, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in October remains high, the US dollar continues to be weak, which supports metal prices. Fundamentally, the supply of lead ore and scrap batteries is tight, providing cost support. The supply will increase marginally as some smelters resume production and there is an expectation of imported crude lead. The demand is flat as the peak season for electric bicycle battery replacement is ending and battery exports are restricted. It is expected that lead prices will adjust weakly in a volatile manner [5]. 3.2 Trading Data - From October 10th to 17th, SHFE lead dropped from 17,140 yuan/ton to 17,075 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton; LME lead dropped from 2,014.5 dollars/ton to 1,971.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 43 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.51 to 8.66. The inventory of SHFE increased by 1,785 tons to 41,701 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 13,400 tons to 250,400 tons. The social inventory increased by 0.35 million tons to 3.94 million tons, and the spot premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton to - 215 yuan/ton [6]. 3.3 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main SHFE lead contract PB2511 adjusted slightly at a high level, closing at 17,075 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.38%. LME lead continued to fall from a high level, closing at 1,971.5 dollars/ton, a weekly decline of 2.13%. In the spot market, there is obvious regional supply tightness. Some holders are reluctant to sell at low prices or raise prices. Downstream enterprises purchase on demand, and some are waiting and watching. In terms of inventory, LME, SHFE, and social inventories all increased slightly, and it is expected that the social inventory will not increase significantly [7][8]. 3.4 Industry News - From October 11th - 17th, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 350 yuan/metal ton, and the average imported lead concentrate processing fee was - 110 dollars/dry ton, both remaining flat compared to the previous period. In the 2025 LME WEEK, the proportion of investors voting to short lead in the next year was 6.8%. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group predicts that the global lead ore supply will increase by 0.7% to 457,000 tons in 2025 and by 2.2% to 467,000 tons in 2026; the global refined lead demand will increase by 1.8% to 1.325 million tons in 2025 and by 0.9% to 1.337 million tons in 2026. The global refined lead supply will exceed demand by 91,000 tons in 2025 and 102,000 tons in 2026 [10].