重点关注四中全会及中美进展

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The effect of anti-involution is minimal, and the year-on-year growth rates of PPI and M1 are rising due to low bases. The economic data in October is crucial. Exports maintained resilience in September, but the growth rate is expected to decline significantly in Q4. The central government has allocated 500 billion yuan to local governments, and the economic growth rate is expected to pick up in Q4 [1]. - The Fourth Plenary Session is expected to focus on emerging technology, supply chain security, and economic restructuring. The "15th Five-Year Plan" will provide specific policy measures. Sino-US relations are at a critical juncture, and the market may be hit if the leaders do not meet in late October or early November [2]. - The sales area of new homes in 30 large and medium-sized cities has seasonally rebounded but is still far below the historical level. The housing market remains pessimistic. The bond market is expected to be volatile and bullish, with the stock market being the main risk [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Next Week's Key Focus: The Fourth Plenary Session and Sino-US Relations (1) Anti-involution Effect is Minimal, and the Domestic Economy Remains Sluggish - Exports grew by 8.3% year-on-year in September, continuing to show resilience. However, the growth rate is expected to decline in Q4 due to the high base. High-frequency data shows that exports in October may be lower than in September [12]. - The effect of anti-involution is minimal, as shown by the PPI. The year-on-year growth rate of PPI has been rising for five months, mainly due to the low base. The economic data in October is crucial [14]. - The year-on-year growth rate of M1 is also affected by the low base. The domestic economy remains weak, as shown by the social financing and credit data. The government has allocated 500 billion yuan to local governments, and the economic growth rate is expected to pick up in Q4 [17]. (2) The 15th Five-Year Plan and Sino-US Relations - The Fourth Plenary Session is expected to focus on emerging technology, supply chain security, and economic restructuring. The "15th Five-Year Plan" will provide specific policy measures [21]. - Sino-US relations are at a critical juncture, with the leaders expected to meet during the APEC Summit in late October or early November. The market may be hit if the leaders do not meet and the US imposes 100% tariffs. China will implement new rare earth export control measures on December 1 [21]. 2. Real Estate Market Tracking: New Home Sales are Far Below the Seasonal Level - The sales area of new homes in 30 large and medium-sized cities has seasonally rebounded but is still far below the historical level. First-tier cities are weak, second-tier cities are similar to last year, and third-tier cities are higher than in 2023 [3]. - The listing price index of second-hand homes has continued to decline, with the decline accelerating in second- and third-tier cities. The overall trend of the real estate market remains pessimistic [3]. 3. Treasury Bonds: Continue to Run Strongly - The bond market has been volatile this week, with the Sino-US confrontation increasing market risk aversion and benefiting the bond market. The bond market is expected to be volatile and bullish, with the stock market being the main risk [34].