生猪：供应后置确认，中枢进一步下移
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-10-20 01:53

Report Title - The report is titled "Pigs: Supply Postponement Confirmed, Central Point Further Lowered" [1] Report Date - The report was released on October 20, 2025 [1] Core View - The supply of pigs is postponed, and the central point further moves down [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Fundamental Tracking Pig Price - Henan spot price is 11,380 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 100 yuan/ton [1] - Sichuan spot price is 10,900 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 100 yuan/ton [1] - Guangdong spot price is 11,460 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 0 yuan/ton [1] - The price of the Pig 2511 futures contract is 11,050 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 115 yuan/ton compared to the previous period [1] Market Information - Shennong registered 90 lots of warehouse receipts in Yunnan and Guangxi, and Guizhou Zhenfeng Fuyuan registered 21 lots of warehouse receipts [2] - Yuexiu and Yangxiang added new delivery warehouses [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is -2, indicating the most bearish view [3] Futures Research Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of Pig 2511 is 26,986 lots, a decrease of 6,503 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 35,844 lots, a decrease of 5,388 lots from the previous day [4] - The trading volume of Pig 2601 is 86,464 lots, an increase of 6,438 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 106,972 lots, an increase of 1,960 lots from the previous day [4] - The trading volume of Pig 2603 is 23,143 lots, an increase of 6,271 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 81,591 lots, an increase of 4,172 lots from the previous day [4] Basis and Spread - The basis of Pig 2511 is 11,670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 235 yuan/ton [4] - The basis of Pig 2601 is 11,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 260 yuan/ton [4] - The spread between Pig 11 - 1 is 120 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton [4] - The spread between Pig 1 - 3 is 390 yuan/ton, an increase of 215 yuan/ton [4] - The spread between Pig 11 - 3 is -290 yuan/ton, an increase of 335 yuan/ton [4] - The spread between Pig 1 - 3 (another data) is 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 360 yuan/ton [4] - The spread between Pig 11 - 3 (another data) is -620 yuan/ton [4]