多空因素交织，棕榈油宽幅震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the domestic oil and fat sector oscillated and declined, mainly dragged down by the drop in international oil prices. Palm oil showed a wide - range oscillation. The production and demand of Malaysian palm oil both increased in the first half of October, with expected subsequent production slowdown and inventory reduction. Indonesia plans to raise export taxes to support the B50 biodiesel policy in 2026, which provides support for prices. The easing of China - Canada trade relations may lead to a restart of Canadian rapeseed imports, making rapeseed oil relatively weak. The continuous shutdown of the US government has suspended data reports, causing a lack of market guidance, but the higher - than - expected soybean crushing demand released by NOPA has boosted the price of US soybean oil. Overall, palm oil is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [5][9][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - CBOT soybean oil main - continuous contract rose 1.13 to 51.1 cents per pound, an increase of 2.26%. BMD Malaysian palm oil main - continuous contract fell 72 to 4,474 ringgit per ton, a decrease of 1.58%. DCE palm oil contract 01 fell 130 to 9,308 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1.38%. DCE soybean oil contract 01 fell 46 to 8,256 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.55%. CZCE rapeseed oil contract 01 fell 200 to 9,861 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1.99%. ICE rapeseed active contract rose 7.6 to 631 Canadian dollars per ton, an increase of 1.22% [5][6][8]. - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong dropped 210 to 9,250 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2.22%. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao dropped 10 to 8,520 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.12%. The spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu dropped 210 to 10,120 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2.03% [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Production and demand data: From October 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit area increased by 5.76% month - on - month, oil extraction rate by 0.21% month - on - month, and production by 6.86% month - on - month. The export volume data from different institutions showed increases ranging from 12.3% to 49.8% compared with the same period last month [10]. - Policy and inventory: Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in November to 4,262.23 ringgit per ton (1,008.1 US dollars), while keeping the export tariff at 10%. Indonesia plans to raise the export tax on crude palm oil from 10% to 15% to support the transition from B40 to B50 biodiesel. As of October 10, 2025, the total inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 238.17 million tons, with soybean oil inventory increasing, palm oil inventory decreasing, and rapeseed oil inventory decreasing [11][12][15]. - Consumption data: In India, palm oil imports in September dropped 16.3% to 829,017 tons, the lowest since May, while soybean oil imports surged 36.8% to 503,240 tons, the highest since July 2022, and sunflower oil imports increased by about 6% to 272,386 tons, the highest since January [12]. - Transaction volume: As of the week of October 17, 2025, the average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 11,800 tons, and that of palm oil was 847 tons [13]. Industry News - It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil inventory will decline in the coming months, reaching about 1.7 million tons by the end of the year, due to seasonal production decline and increased demand during festivals [14]. - Due to increased production and more working days in October, Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to increase by 3% month - on - month to 2.4 million tons. Indonesia's plan to implement the B50 biodiesel mandate in mid - 2026 and the seasonal low - production period from November to February may keep palm oil prices between 4,000 and 4,500 ringgit per ton. Analysts have raised the price forecast for Malaysian palm oil in 2025 by 130 ringgit to 4,330 ringgit per ton and in 2026 by 100 ringgit to 4,200 ringgit per ton [14][15]. - Indonesia plans to raise the export tax on crude palm oil from 10% to 15% to support the transition from B40 to B50 biodiesel, and the tax - increase plan is still under discussion among ministries [15]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, and three major domestic oils, the spot price trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the inventory trends of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, and the commercial inventory trends of domestic three major oils [17][18][20].