格林大华期货板块早报-20251020

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Gold and silver have risen continuously recently, accumulating many profit - taking positions. Short - term volatility has intensified, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions Review - COMEX gold futures fell 0.85% to $4267.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 5.01% to $50.63 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed down 1.27% at 973.88 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver fell 3.94% to 11748 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - As of October 17, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust increased by 12.59 tons from the previous day to 1047.21 tons, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust increased by 74.79 tons from the previous day to 15497.4 tons [1] - On October 17, the President of Ukraine met with the President of the United States. Zelensky said he was willing to accept bilateral or trilateral talks, and Trump said the Russia - Ukraine conflict should end. Trump is about to meet with Putin in Budapest, Hungary [1] - On the morning of October 18, Beijing time, He Lifeng, the Chinese lead person for China - US economic and trade affairs and Vice - Premier of the State Council, held a video call with US lead persons, US Treasury Secretary Bethent and Trade Representative Greer. The two sides agreed to hold a new round of China - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin ratio and daily price limit range for gold and silver futures. Starting from the closing settlement on Tuesday, October 21, 2025, the daily price limit range for gold and silver futures contracts will be adjusted to 14%, the margin ratio for hedging positions to 15%, and the margin ratio for general positions to 16% [1] Market Logic - There has been a historic short - squeeze in the London silver market recently. Extreme market conditions have magnified market volatility. After continuous rises, the spot price of London silver hit a record high of $54.468 per ounce on October 17 and then plunged by 6.7%. COMEX silver futures also fell sharply, while the decline of COMEX gold futures was relatively small. Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver also had significant pull - backs in night trading. The willingness to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the upcoming China - US economic and trade consultations are conducive to reducing short - term market risk - aversion sentiment [1] Trading Strategy - Gold and silver have risen continuously recently, accumulating many profit - taking positions. Short - term volatility has intensified, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]