供需关系转弱，铁矿偏弱运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the supply side saw a week - on - week decline in overseas shipments last week and an increase in arrivals, both at high levels in the same period of the past three years, with shipments expected to decline this week. The demand side had a slight drop in blast furnace operation and a decrease in daily hot metal production, which still remained above 2.4 million tons. Steel mill inventories decreased while port inventories increased. As the hot metal production on the demand side will gradually peak and the first batch of iron ore from the Simandou project on the supply side is about to be shipped, the supply - demand relationship will weaken, and iron ore prices are expected to run weakly [1][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3037 | - 66 | - 2.13 | 6235970 | 2668939 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3204 | - 81 | - 2.47 | 2721017 | 1479995 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 771.0 | - 24.0 | - 3.02 | 1845337 | 535578 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1179.0 | 18.0 | 1.55 | 5827491 | 854021 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1676.0 | 9.5 | 0.57 | 115664 | 50896 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - Demand Side: Last week, steel mill hot metal production continued to increase, with the daily average hot metal rising above 2.42 million tons. Steel mills actively replenished their inventories before the festival, and their inventories reached a high level in the same period. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.27%, flat compared with last week and 2.59 percentage points higher than last year. The daily average hot metal production was 240.95 tons, a decrease of 0.59 tons compared with last week and an increase of 6.59 tons compared with last year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.33%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points compared with last week and an increase of 2.34 percentage points compared with last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 55.41%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points compared with last week and a decrease of 19.05 percentage points compared with last year [1][4]. - Supply Side: Last week, overseas shipments decreased week - on - week while arrivals increased, both at high levels in the same period of the past three years, and shipments are expected to decline this week. The total global iron ore shipments were 3207.5 tons, a decrease of 71.5 tons compared with last week. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2731.0 tons, a decrease of 94.9 tons compared with last week. In terms of inventory, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 14961.87 tons, an increase of 320.79 tons compared with last week; the daily average port clearance volume was 329.32 tons, a decrease of 12.22 tons [1][5]. Industry News - China announced counter - measures against the US 301 investigation restrictions on China's shipbuilding and other industries, and will levy a special port fee on US - related ships starting from October 14 [10]. - Premier Li Qiang chaired a symposium of experts and entrepreneurs on the economic situation, emphasizing the need to implement counter - cyclical regulation, expand domestic demand, and create a first - class industrial ecosystem [10]. - Rio Tinto's Simandou project started loading the first batch of iron ore in the mine in October 2025 and transporting it to the port by rail. The first batch of iron ore is expected to be shipped around November, and the entire system commissioning is expected to last for several months, with a planned full - load operation of 60 million tons per year in 30 months [10]. - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held in Beijing from October 20 to 23 [10]. - The National Bureau of Statistics will announce economic data such as the housing sales price report of 70 large and medium - sized cities in September and the economic performance in the third quarter on October 20. The central bank will announce the LPR quotation for October on the 20th, and the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the price changes of important production materials in the circulation field on the 24th [10]. - On October 18, He Lifeng had a video call with US Treasury Secretary Bezant and Trade Representative Greer, and both sides agreed to hold a new round of China - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [10].