锌周报：比价走势反复，锌价延续承压-20251020

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures moved down and then fluctuated horizontally. Overseas macro events such as Sino - US trade friction, interest - rate cut expectations, government shutdown, and US bank credit crisis are uncertain, and domestic macro data is mixed. After the holiday, inventory accumulation is high, consumption improvement is limited, and supply is gradually recovering, leading to a weakening of supply - demand balance. The focus is on zinc ingot exports. If there is a certain volume of exports, it will improve the domestic oversupply expectation. In the short term, the macro direction is unclear, and fundamental support is insufficient, so zinc prices are expected to remain under pressure [3][4][12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From October 10th to October 17th, the SHFE zinc price dropped from 22,270 yuan/ton to 21,815 yuan/ton, a decrease of 455 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price dropped from 2984.5 dollars/ton to 2942.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 42 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 7.46 to 7.41; the SHFE inventory increased by 2677 tons to 109,627 tons; the LME inventory increased by 75 tons to 38,025 tons; the social inventory decreased by 1.32 million tons to 10.37 million tons; the spot premium increased from - 50 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Market Review - The main ZN2512 contract of Shanghai zinc futures fluctuated downward and then consolidated horizontally. The LME0 - 3BACK structure expanded, and part of the inventory became visible. After the LME inventory increased slightly, the zinc price stabilized. The final weekly decline was 2.11%, closing at 21,830 yuan/ton. London zinc hit the bottom and rebounded, with a weekly decline of 1.41%, closing at 2942.5 dollars/ton. In the spot market, the supply of goods in circulation was limited, and the spot maintained a small premium. Downstream purchases were mainly for rigid demand, and actual transactions were mainly among traders [6][7]. 3. Industry News - From October 10th to 17th, the average domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 3400 yuan/ton, and the average imported ore processing fee increased by 0.25 dollars/dry ton to 118.75 dollars/dry ton. In the 2025 LME WEEK, the proportion of investors voting to short zinc in the next year reached 29.7%. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group predicts that the global refined zinc production will increase by 2.7% to 13.8 million tons in 2025 and by 2.4% to 14.13 million tons in 2026, while the demand will increase by 1.1% to 13.71 million tons in 2025 and by 1% to 13.86 million tons in 2026. The supply surplus will expand from 85,000 tons in 2025 to 271,000 tons in 2026 [13][14]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides charts on the price trends of Shanghai and London zinc, the internal - external price ratio, inventory, zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profit and loss, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, refined zinc net imports, and downstream enterprise operating rates, reflecting the historical data and trends of these indicators [16][20][21].