铝周报：节后补库积极，铝价偏好震荡-20251020

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market has high expectations for the "TACO" trade due to the Sino-US trade game, the continuous rise of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, and domestic policy expectations, leading to significant macro fluctuations. The proportion of molten aluminum on the supply side continues to rise, resulting in less pressure on aluminum ingot supply. The consumption side is still in the seasonal peak season, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots has started to decrease again. The LME spot premium overseas has been relatively high recently, increasing concerns about liquidity risks. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate favorably, ranging from 20,700 to 21,200 yuan/ton [3][8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Data - The price of LME Aluminum 3 months increased by 32.5 yuan/ton to 2,778.5 yuan/ton, SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three decreased by 70.0 dollars/ton to 20,925 dollars/ton, and the Shanghai-London aluminum ratio decreased by 0.1 to 7.5. The LME spot premium increased by 0.8 dollars/ton to 12.88 dollars/ton. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 17,600 tons to 491,225 tons, and the SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased by 11,551 tons to 70,670 tons. The spot average price decreased by 63 yuan/ton to 20,902 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 40 yuan/ton, stabilizing around a small discount to par. The South China spot average price decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 20,810 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai-Guangdong price difference increased by 27 yuan/ton to 92 yuan/ton. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 2.2 tons to 62.7 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 0.45 tons to 14.8 tons. The theoretical average cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 40.2 yuan/ton to 15,830.95 yuan/ton, and the weekly average profit of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 22.8 yuan/ton to 5,071.05 yuan/ton [4] 2. Market Review - The weekly average price of the spot market was 20,902 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan/ton from the previous week; the weekly average price of the South China spot was 20,810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from the previous week [5] 3. Market Outlook - The US government shutdown continued in the second week, delaying the release of economic data. Multiple Fed officials spoke, and the market's expectation of a 25BP interest rate cut in October continued to rise to 96.3%, and the probability of another rate cut in December also increased to 99.6%. The Sino-US trade game continued, with various news emerging, causing significant fluctuations in the market's macro atmosphere. In China, the year-on-year growth rate of core inflation in September recovered, and the manufacturing PMI continued to rise in the contraction range to 49.8%. Domestic policies to expand domestic demand this year may still be worth looking forward to. Fundamentally, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained stable, and the proportion of molten aluminum in September increased by 1.23 percentage points to 76.3%, and it is expected to increase by another 1 percentage point in October. On the consumption side, the downstream aluminum operating rate remained stable at 62.5% last week. With the price decline and post-festival replenishment, the spot procurement enthusiasm was good. The spot price rebounded following the futures price, and the transaction premium and discount stabilized around a small discount to par. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased again this week, with a reduction of 2.3 tons to 62.7 tons; the aluminum rod inventory was 14.8 tons, a decrease of 0.45 tons from last Thursday [3][8] 4. Industry News - In recent weeks, Canadian aluminum producers have increased shipments to the US market due to the rising aluminum prices in the US spot market, highlighting the impact of the 50% aluminum import tariff imposed by Trump earlier this year. Rio Tinto's Q3 2025 report showed that bauxite production increased by 9% year-on-year to 16.4 million tons, alumina production reached 1.9 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7%, and primary aluminum production was 0.86 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%. The company raised the production target for bauxite from 57-59 million tons (higher level) to 59-61 million tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange approved the cancellation of the copper and aluminum futures storage point of Shanghai Port Cloud Warehouse (Shanghai) Storage Management Co., Ltd. in Baoshan District, Shanghai, with a verified storage capacity of 10,000 tons for both copper and aluminum [9] 5. Relevant Charts - The report includes 10 charts, showing the price trends of LME Aluminum 3 and SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three, the Shanghai-London aluminum ratio, the LME aluminum premium, the Shanghai aluminum current month - continuous one inter - period price difference, the Shanghai-Guangdong price difference, the seasonal spot premium of physical trade, the prices of domestic and imported alumina, the cost and profit of electrolytic aluminum, the seasonal changes in electrolytic aluminum inventory, and the seasonal changes in aluminum rod inventory [10][11][12][13][14]