区间震荡延续，镍价先强后弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The nickel price is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range, showing a pattern of being strong first and then weak this week. Although there is a continued positive macro - expectation, the fundamentals have no obvious improvement. The Fed is likely to continue cutting interest rates in October, and the US dollar index is expected to decline, which provides macro - level support. However, there is a stockpiling pressure on nickel both at home and abroad, and domestic supply remains high. Traditional consumption has no significant driving force, and whether the strong demand from the power end can materialize remains to be seen [3][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data of Last Week - SHFE nickel price dropped from 122,180 yuan/ton to 121,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,020 yuan/ton; LME nickel price decreased from 15,280 dollars/ton to 15,126 dollars/ton, a decline of 154 dollars/ton. - LME nickel inventory increased by 13,152 tons to 250,530 tons, and SHFE nickel inventory rose by 1,814 tons to 27,042 tons. - The premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by 200 yuan/ton to 2,450 yuan/ton, while the premium of Russian nickel remained unchanged at 550 yuan/ton. - The average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased from 961 yuan/nickel point to 947 yuan/nickel point, a drop of 14 yuan/nickel point. - Stainless steel inventory decreased from 878,000 tons to 865,000 tons, a reduction of 13,200 tons [4]. 3.2 Market Review 3.2.1 Macro - level - The US government shutdown led to a halt in the release of inflation, retail, and employment data. The Fed's economic beige book showed that the US consumer market has weakened, with high tariffs driving up prices and economic downward pressure still existing. The labor market remains sluggish but has stopped declining. The IMF raised the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the July forecast. Fed governors Milan and Waller signaled a dovish stance, but there is a difference in the expected interest - rate cut range in October, with Milan advocating a 50 - basis - point cut and Waller supporting a 25 - basis - point cut [5]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore - The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines remained at 49 dollars/wet ton, and that in Indonesia remained at 38.55 dollars/wet ton. The FOB price of 1.4% grade nickel ore in the Philippines from a tender was 43.5 dollars/wet ton. The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is expected to remain loose, and the domestic trade premium is stable. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources required 400 mining enterprises to submit their 2026 production plans by October 17 [6]. 3.2.3 Pure Nickel - In September, the national refined nickel production was 35,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.07%. The monthly production capacity was about 54,198 tons, a slight increase of 499 tons from the previous period, and the operating rate was 66%, with no significant change. The profit margins of integrated electrowinning nickel in various processes have been significantly restored. In August, China imported 24,186 tons of refined nickel, a year - on - year increase of about 161.29% and a month - on - month decrease of about 6,000 tons. The import increment mainly came from Norway, while imports from Russia decreased significantly. In August, the domestic refined nickel export volume was about 15,048 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.12%. As of October 16, the spot import profit and loss of refined nickel was - 1,325 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased significantly [7]. 3.2.4 Nickel Iron - The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) dropped from 951 yuan/nickel point to 938 yuan/nickel point, a weekly decline of about 1.37%. In September, China's nickel pig iron production was 22,930 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09%. Indonesia's nickel pig iron production was 139,900 nickel tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 0.14% and 0.01% respectively. As of September 30, the physical ton inventory of nickel iron was 254,300 tons, a slight increase of about 5,800 tons from the previous period. After the holiday, stainless - steel consumption was sluggish, and steel mills' raw material stocking willingness was poor, putting pressure on nickel - iron prices. The cost of nickel - iron plants was under pressure due to the firm price of nickel ore [8]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel - In September, China's 300 - series stainless - steel production was about 1.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 100,000 tons and a month - on - month flat. Indonesia's stainless - steel production in September was about 430,000 tons, a slight increase of 30,000 tons from the previous period. The 300 - series stainless - steel production in September had no significant change, and the actual nickel consumption was limited. It is expected that the 300 - series stainless - steel production in October will decrease by 70,000 tons to 1.79 million tons. As of October 16, the domestic 300 - series stainless - steel inventory was 562,200 tons, a stockpiling of about 31,300 tons from the previous period. The terminal real - estate transaction was still sluggish, and the large - scale stockpiling of 300 - series stainless steel suppressed its production scale [9]. 3.2.6 Nickel Sulfate - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose from 28,400 yuan/ton to 28,550 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate rose slightly to 30,750 yuan/ton. In September, the production of nickel sulfate was 33,971 tons (metal content), a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 4.75% and 11.45% respectively. The production of ternary materials in September was about 75,360 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 31.5% and 2.6% respectively. The profit margin of the process of producing nickel sulfate from high - grade nickel matte was 6.1% and showed an upward trend. The supply of MHP was tight, and there was a structural differentiation in the upstream supply, but the total supply increased. The terminal consumption was strong, but the mid - stream material factories had not digested their existing inventories, and there was a strong restocking expectation in the future [10]. 3.2.7 New Energy - From October 1 - 12, the retail volume of the national new - energy passenger - vehicle market was 367,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 1% compared with the same period in October last year and a month - on - month increase of 1%. The penetration rate of new - energy vehicle retail was 53.5%, and the cumulative retail volume since this year was 9.236 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 23%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, and the State Taxation Administration jointly issued an announcement on the technical requirements for new - energy vehicles eligible for vehicle purchase tax exemption from 2026 - 2027. The new standard will take effect on January 1, 2026, which is expected to promote technological innovation in the automotive industry and the lightweight development of new - energy vehicles. Some regions have adjusted the new - energy vehicle replacement subsidy rules to a "qualification - based" system [10][11]. 3.2.8 Inventory - The current six - region social inventory of pure nickel was 47,708 tons, an increase of 4,014 tons from the previous period. The SHFE inventory was 27,042 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,814 tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 250,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,152 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges was 277,572 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,966 tons [12]. 3.3 Industry News - On October 10, 2025, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources required nickel enterprises to submit their 2026 nickel - mine production plans by October 15. - Zhongwei Co., Ltd. stated that its nickel - ore smelting capacity in Indonesia is nearly 200,000 metal tons. The company has also made strategic investments in lithium and phosphorus resources [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides 10 charts, including domestic and foreign nickel - price trends, spot premium trends, LME 0 - 3 nickel premium, nickel domestic - to - foreign ratio, nickel - futures inventory, nickel - ore port inventory, high - nickel - iron price, 300 - series stainless - steel price, and stainless - steel inventory [16][18][23].