需求乐观，供应扰动，锂价仍有向上潜力

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The demand for lithium carbonate is strong, with a 6.7% month - on - month increase in power battery production scheduling in October, limited month - on - month increase in energy storage due to high - end product capacity constraints but booming orders, and a shortage of electrolytes leading to significant price increases. The supply is facing disturbances, such as tax supplements in Yichun mines, potential production delays, and limited import increments from South America. The inventory is decreasing, indicating strong demand. In the short term, there is a possibility of the lithium carbonate price breaking through the resistance level of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan, and a short - term bullish view is recommended, with strategies including going long on dips, holding off on arbitrage, and selling out - of - the - money put options [5]. Summary by Directory Demand Analysis 1.1 New Energy Vehicles - Domestic sales: In September, new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 23.7% and 24.6%. New energy passenger vehicle retail sales were 1.296 million, a year - on - year increase of 15.5% and a month - on - month increase of 16.2%. The cumulative retail sales from January to September were 8.866 million, a year - on - year increase of 24.4%. The domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in September was 57.8%. The cumulative power cell production from January to September increased by 45.6% year - on - year to 861.04 GWh [10]. - Overseas market: From January to August 2025, global new energy vehicle sales increased by 23.5% year - on - year to 12.371 million. European sales increased by 27.4% year - on - year to 2.347 million, and US sales increased by 8.1% year - on - year to 1.063 million. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to September 2025 reached 1.727 million, a year - on - year increase of 86% [16]. 1.2 Energy Storage Market - Domestic energy storage orders are strong due to "rush - to - export" demand and中标 projects in regions like the Middle East, South America, and Australia. From January to September, China's energy storage cell production was 355.1 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 57%. The energy storage cell inventory is at a three - year low, and the delivery cycle is extended, with expected good performance in October to support lithium carbonate consumption [21]. 1.3 October Battery and Cathode Production Scheduling - In October, the electrolyte production scheduling was 100,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of 46%. The iron - lithium battery production scheduling was 113.6 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 9% and a year - on - year increase of 49%. The ternary battery production scheduling was 22.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 12%. The ternary cathode production scheduling of 4 companies was 26,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2% and a year - on - year increase of 15%. The iron - lithium cathode production scheduling of 4 companies was 130,000 tons, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 19% [24][29]. Supply Analysis 2.1 Weekly Lithium Carbonate Production - This week, the weekly lithium carbonate production increased by 431 tons, with increased production from salt lakes and mica, and limited increment from spodumene. From January to September, domestic lithium carbonate production was 684,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 42%, and the production scheduling for October was 89,900 tons. The treatment plan for mines in Yichun is yet to be released, and 8 mines have submitted reserve verification reports [34]. 2.2 Monthly Lithium Carbonate Production by Raw Material - Not elaborated in text, only data charts are provided [36]. 2.3 Lithium Carbonate Supply - From January to August 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 153,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In September, Chile's lithium carbonate exports were 16,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,000 tons, and exports to China were 11,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,880 tons. In October, there is unlikely to be a significant increase in lithium salt imports. In September 2025, the Port of Hedland in Australia shipped 186,424 tons of spodumene concentrate to China, a month - on - month increase of 45.6% and a year - on - year increase of 26.3% [43]. Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Supply - Demand Balance Forecast - Not elaborated in text, only data charts are provided [45]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Inventory - This week, the social inventory decreased by nearly 2,143 tons, with a 464 - ton decrease in smelter inventory, a 2,030 - ton decrease in downstream inventory, and a 350 - ton increase in other inventory. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts decreased by 12,000 tons to 30,600 tons, indicating strong spot demand [49].