屡创新高之后，警惕金银价格回调风险

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, precious metal prices continued to perform strongly, with both gold and silver prices hitting new highs. On Friday, prices fluctuated significantly during the day session, reached new highs, and then corrected during the night session, ending the five - day consecutive increase in gold prices [2][5]. - The U.S. government has been shut down for over half a month, and many U.S. economic data releases have been suspended. The Republicans' temporary appropriation bill has been rejected for the 11th time. There are different views among Fed officials on the pace of interest rate cuts [5]. - Recent Sino - U.S. trade frictions have escalated again. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent expects to meet with Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng before the APEC summit. If the negotiation progresses smoothly, both sides may make compromises to ease the current trade relations [2][6]. - The recent short - squeeze in the London silver spot market has pushed the silver price to a record high. However, the one - month lease rate of London silver spot futures has dropped from a high of 35% to around 20%, indicating that the shortage of London silver spot has eased [2][6]. - Many exchanges and banks have issued risk warnings due to the continuous and significant fluctuations in gold and silver prices. Although the long - term view on precious metal prices remains positive, the risk of short - term price adjustments for gold and silver has increased [2][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Trading Data - SHFE gold closed at 999.80 yuan/gram, up 98.24 yuan or 10.90%; SHFE silver closed at 12,249 yuan/kilogram, up 1,167 yuan or 10.53%. Other major precious metal contracts also showed varying degrees of price increases and volume changes [3]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Precious metal prices were strong last week, with gold and silver hitting new highs. The U.S. government shutdown and differences among Fed officials on interest rate cuts affect the market. Sino - U.S. trade relations and the easing of the silver short - squeeze situation are also important factors [5][6]. 3. Important Data Information - The IMF predicts that the world economy will grow by 3.2% in 2025, up 0.2 percentage points from the July forecast, and 3.1% in 2026. It has slightly raised the economic growth forecasts for the U.S. in the next two years and maintained China's growth forecast at 4.8% for this year [10]. - Economists surveyed by NABE have raised the growth forecasts for the U.S. economy in the next two years but expect weak employment growth. They predict that the U.S. GDP will grow by 1.8% this year, up from the 1.3% forecast in June [10]. - ECB President Lagarde cannot declare the end of the interest rate cut cycle. The Fed's economic beige book shows that economic activity has changed little recently, with a slight decline in consumer spending and stable employment levels [10]. 4. Relevant Data Charts - ETF gold total holdings reached 1,047.21 tons on October 17, 2025, an increase of 30.05 tons from the previous week; ishare silver holdings were 15,497.40 tons, an increase of 53.64 tons from the previous week [11]. - The report also provides data on CFTC non - commercial positions in gold and silver futures, as well as various charts showing the price trends, inventory changes, and correlations of precious metals with other factors such as the U.S. dollar, inflation, and oil prices [14][15][16]