橡胶板块2025年10月第3周报-20251020

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Natural rubber's center of gravity has slightly declined, with the weekly decline of Qingdao STR20 mixed rubber and Shanghai full - latex rubber being about 1.5%. The center of gravity of butadiene rubber has reached a low of 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton [4]. - After the "Double Festival", tire production has fully resumed, with the operating load of Shandong all - steel tires rising by 18.7 percentage points to 65%, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires also increasing significantly. The downstream is replenishing inventory at low prices [4]. - The NR - RU spread has been strengthening since the delivery of the 09 contract. Fundamentally, the low Thai water - cup spread supports the strength of NR, while sufficient domestic production capacity supports the weakness of RU. However, most other data do not support the continuous strengthening of NR [17]. Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis - Valuation: The center of gravity of natural rubber has slightly declined. Qingdao STR20 mixed rubber is at 14,586 yuan/ton, and Shanghai full - latex rubber is at 14,387 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of about 1.5%. The center of gravity of butadiene rubber has reached a low of 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton [4]. - Supply: In Hainan and Xishuangbanna, rainfall has affected production, with the daily glue output being only over a thousand tons, and the domestic raw material purchase price has been reduced by 650 - 750 yuan/ton in total. In northeastern Thailand, the weather has improved, and the cup - lump rubber has fallen to 50.4 Thai baht/kg. The synthetic rubber supply has increased, with the comprehensive operating rate rising to 74.8% and the social inventory increasing by 14.6% month - on - month [4]. - Demand: After the "Double Festival", tire production has fully resumed. The operating load of Shandong all - steel tires has risen by 18.7 percentage points to 65%, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires has also increased significantly. The downstream is replenishing inventory at low prices. Generally, when truck and bus tires are stronger than car tires, rubber prices tend to be weak, but now car tires also show signs of stabilization [4]. Strategy Recommendation - Single - side: Hold short positions in the RU main 01 contract, and set a stop - loss at the recent high of 15,000 points; wait and see for the NR main 12 contract, and pay attention to the pressure at the recent high of 12,360 points; try to go long on the BR main 12 contract at an appropriate time, and set a stop - loss at the recent low of 10,790 points [5]. - Arbitrage: Intervene in RU2601 - NR2601 at an appropriate time; hold the BR2601 - RU2601 (2 lots to 1 lot) position at - 4,010 points, and raise the stop - loss to the recent low of - 4,090 points [5]. - Options: Sell the RU2601 put 13,500 contract at an appropriate time, and set a stop - loss at the high of 103 points last Friday; pay attention to the pressure at the recent high of 219 points for the BR2512 call 11,200 contract [5]. Focus - NR Valuation (NR - RU Spread) - Negative factors for the spread: The import volume of Indonesian standard rubber has increased significantly and has become the main body of NR delivery [8]. - Positive factors for the spread: The Thai water - cup spread has reached a new low, indicating that the raw materials for standard rubber are extremely strong; the increasing trend of domestic rubber production is relatively unfavorable for RU valuation [10][13]. Natural Rubber Supply - The year - on - year decline of Thai glue is greater than that of RU. As of October, Thai glue has closed at 54.1 Thai baht/kg, with a year - on - year decline of - 34.8%, and the decline is expanding, far greater than the year - on - year decline of - 7.0% of the RU contract [26]. - The water - cup spread in Yunnan also shows that the RU contract is still overvalued. The average daily weighted rainfall in Thailand in October has increased year - on - year, but the increase has been narrowing for 6 consecutive months, which means an increase in supply [26]. Synthetic Rubber Supply - As of last Friday, the domestic butadiene production capacity utilization rate has decreased, the high - cis butadiene rubber production capacity utilization rate has increased, the butadiene port inventory has increased, and the butadiene rubber trader and factory inventory has increased [36]. Mixed Basis - As of October 12, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade is 456,000 tons, a decrease of 0.11% month - on - month. The bonded area inventory has increased, and the general trade inventory has decreased. After the festival, the macro - atmosphere in the rubber market is bearish, and downstream enterprises are mostly waiting and watching [39]. Downstream Consumption - After - festival all - steel tire: The production line operating rate has increased to 64.5%, and the finished product inventory has been accumulating for 7 consecutive weeks to 40 days, with active inventory accumulation [46]. - Semi - steel tire: The production line operating rate has increased to 72.7%, and the product inventory has been de - stocking for 9 consecutive weeks to 45 days, with passive de - stocking and a tightening balance [46]. - European automobile industry: As of October 2025, the European automobile industry index has declined month - on - month but strengthened year - on - year, which is positive for the RU single - side [53]. - Domestic automobile inventory: As of September 2025, the domestic automobile inventory index has been accumulating for 2 consecutive months to 57.9 points, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%, which is negative for the RU single - side [53]. RU Month - spread - In August, the domestic capital annualized interest rate was 1.49%, with interest rate cuts for 4 consecutive months, which determined the narrowing of the September - January space. As of October, the RU warehouse receipts have been de - stocking for 6 consecutive months to 140,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 55.8%, which is positive for the near - end [60].