国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No explicit industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. However, trend intensities are given for each commodity: - Neutral (0): PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, paper pulp, methanol, LPG, propylene, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, urea [2][9][13] - Weakly Bearish (-1): LLDPE, PP, glass,烧碱, PVC,纯碱 [36][40][51] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term and medium - term outlooks for various energy and chemical commodities. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, inventory levels, macro - economic events, and trade relations. For most commodities, the market is influenced by a combination of fundamental factors and macro - level events, leading to a mix of trends including short - term oscillations and long - term bearish or bullish tendencies [9][20][56] 3. Summary by Commodity Aromatics and Polyester Chain - PX: Short - term range - bound market, long PXN. Supply is slightly tight due to planned and unexpected plant shutdowns. Demand may improve with the onset of cold weather and the start - up of new PTA plants [9] - PTA: Demand may improve marginally. It's a range - bound market for the single - side, and short positions should be reduced. Supply increases with new plant start - ups, and demand is affected by polyester consumption and trade relations [10] - MEG: Short positions below 4000 should be reduced. Domestic plant operating rates are rising, but some plants will undergo maintenance. Import and cost factors also impact the market [11] Rubber - Natural Rubber: Expected to trade sideways. Vietnam's rubber exports in September decreased due to weather and weak demand, but a slight increase is expected in October [13][16] - Synthetic Rubber: Likely to oscillate in the short term. There is fundamental pressure from high supply, but the valuation is moderately low, and macro - events may support the price [20] Asphalt - Follows crude oil and trades weakly with oscillations. Production decreased this week, and both factory and social inventories declined [21][33] Plastics - LLDPE: The trend is bearish. Market sentiment is weak, cost support from crude oil is reduced, and supply and inventory pressures are high [34][35] - PP: The trend remains bearish. Trade wars, falling oil prices, and high supply suppress the market price [38][39] - PVC: The trend is bearish. Trade wars, cost declines, and high supply and inventory levels create pressure on the market [71] Chemicals - Caustic Soda: The far - month valuation is suppressed by alumina production cut expectations. Supply and demand are affected by alumina industry conditions and winter maintenance schedules [43] - Methanol: Expected to trade sideways. There is fundamental pressure from high supply and inventory, but the valuation is moderately low, and macro - events may support the price [56] - Urea: Short - term oscillations with a bearish medium - term trend. High social inventory, weak domestic demand, and uncertain export policies contribute to the situation [59][60] - Soda Ash: The spot market shows little change. Supply is high, and downstream demand is weak, leading to a short - term weak and oscillating market [61] - LPG: The futures valuation is being repaired, but macro - risks remain. PDH operating rates are decreasing [64] - Propylene: Supply and demand are relatively loose, and it trades weakly with oscillations in the short term [64] Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: There was a slight night - session rebound, but the short - term weakness persists. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Undergoes narrow - range adjustments, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [73] Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Spot prices show little change, and geopolitical issues are recurring. Freight rates are affected by various factors such as market supply and demand and exchange rates [75]