Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall Market: The market is currently affected by factors such as Sino - US trade disputes, policy expectations, and seasonal demand. Short - term uncertainties exist, but in the long - term, policies are expected to support the capital market. For the black sector, there is potential for a rebound, and for most commodities, specific supply - demand and cost factors need to be considered [4][8][44]. - Investment Strategies: Different commodities have different investment strategies. For example, for some commodities, it is recommended to wait and see, while for others, it is suggested to look for opportunities to go long on dips or short on rallies. 3. Summary by Category Macro - Financial - Stock Index: After the continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have diverged, and the market risk preference has decreased. Sino - US tariff concerns have disturbed the market in the short - term, but in the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the idea is to go long on dips [2][4]. - Treasury Bonds: Sino - US trade disputes have led to a short - term decline in risk preference, which is beneficial for the bond market to recover. However, the uncertainty of tariff progress is high in the fourth quarter. The bond market needs to focus on fundamentals and institutional allocation power, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend [5][8]. - Precious Metals: The Fed's monetary policy is in the initial stage of the easing cycle. The risk events in the banking industry provide a reason for the Fed to end the balance - sheet reduction. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on precious metals and look for opportunities to go long on dips [9][11]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Sino - US trade negotiations are uncertain, but the sentiment has improved marginally. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the downstream consumption has improved after the price decline. The copper price is expected to be strong in the short - term [13][14]. - Aluminum: Sino - US trade tensions may ease marginally. The inventory of aluminum ingots has decreased after the price decline, and the price is supported by the increase in copper prices. It is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term [15][16]. - Zinc: The domestic zinc ore inventory has decreased, and the zinc ingot inventory has increased. The overseas registered zinc warehouse receipts are at a low level. It is expected that the zinc price will be weak in the short - term [17]. - Lead: The lead ore port inventory has increased, and the downstream demand has improved. The lead ingot inventory has decreased. It is expected that the lead price will be strong in the short - term [18][19]. - Nickel: In the short - term, Sino - US trade friction may drive down the market risk preference, but the impact on nickel is relatively small. The nickel iron price has weakened, and the refined nickel inventory pressure is significant. In the long - term, the US easing expectation and domestic policies will support the nickel price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider going long on dips [20][21]. - Tin: Sino - US trade friction may drive down the market risk preference, but the tin supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and the demand has improved in the peak season. The tin price is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. - Lithium Carbonate: The downstream lithium battery industry is in the peak production season, and the supply is less than the demand. The inventory has decreased, and the lithium price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply recovery [23][24]. - Alumina: The alumina smelting capacity is in an over - supply situation, but the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation may drive the non - ferrous sector to be strong. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [26][27]. - Stainless Steel: The price limit increase of 304 cold - rolled steel by Qing Shan Steel has boosted market confidence, but the downstream demand is still weak. It is expected that the market will maintain a volatile pattern in the short - term [28][29]. - Casting Aluminum Alloy: The Sino - US economic and trade negotiation situation may improve the cost - side support, but the delivery pressure of the near - month contract is large, and the upward price space is limited [29][31]. Black Building Materials - Steel: The overall commodity market atmosphere was poor last Friday, and the steel price fluctuated downward. The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is expected to guide the macro - economic trend. The steel demand is still weak in the short - term, and the long - term trend is affected by policies [33][34]. - Iron Ore: The overseas iron ore shipment has decreased seasonally, and the iron water production has decreased due to the decline in steel mill profits. The port inventory has increased, and the iron ore price is expected to be weak and volatile [35][37]. - Glass and Soda Ash: The glass factory inventory is high, and the downstream demand is weak. The soda ash market is in a situation of over - supply, and both are expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [38][41]. - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: Sino - US trade disputes and coal mine safety accidents have affected the market. The black sector is expected to have a potential rebound. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [42][45]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The industrial silicon price is affected by the overall market environment and supply - demand factors, and it is expected to be in a short - term consolidation. The polysilicon policy expectation has an impact on the price, and the supply pressure may be relieved in the future [46][50]. Energy and Chemicals - Rubber: The rubber price has stabilized in the short - term. It is recommended to set a stop - loss and go long in the short - term, and partially build a position for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [52][56]. - Crude Oil: The geopolitical premium has disappeared, and OPEC's supply has not increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and adopt a low - buy and high - sell strategy [57][58]. - Methanol: The import arrival has decreased in the short - term, and the port inventory has decreased. The domestic supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is still weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply - side disturbances and look for 1 - 5 positive spread opportunities [59][61]. - Urea: The short - term operating rate has decreased, and the cost support is expected to increase. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - matching opportunities [62]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: The spot price of styrene has increased, and the futures price has decreased. The port inventory has decreased significantly, and the styrene price may stop falling in the short - term [63][64]. - PVC: The enterprise profit has declined, and the supply is strong while the demand is weak. The export expectation is poor. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities in the medium - term [65][66]. - Ethylene Glycol: The supply load is high, and the port inventory has increased. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities [67][68]. - PTA: The supply is in a slight accumulation state, and the demand is stable. The processing fee is difficult to expand. It is recommended to wait and see [69][71]. - Para - Xylene: The PX load is high, and the downstream PTA load is low. The inventory is difficult to decrease. It is recommended to wait and see [72][73]. - Polyethylene PE: The cost - side support has weakened, and the inventory is at a high level. The polyethylene price is expected to maintain a low - level shock [74][75]. - Polypropylene PP: The cost - side supply is in an over - supply situation, and the inventory pressure is high. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [76][77]. Agricultural Products - Hogs: The supply of hogs is greater than the demand, and the second - fattening is difficult to form a trend. It is recommended to sell on rallies [79][80]. - Eggs: The egg supply is high, and the demand is weak. The spot price has a limited rebound space. The egg price is expected to be in a weak bottom - building state. It is recommended to wait and see [81][83]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The domestic soybean supply pressure is large, and the global soybean supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to sell on rallies [84][85]. - Oils and Fats: The vegetable oil inventory in India and Southeast Asia is low, and the demand for soybean oil is boosted. The oils and fats market is in a state of balanced supply - demand in the short - term and is expected to be tight in the future. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium - term [86][87]. - Sugar: The sugar production in Brazil has increased, and the northern hemisphere is expected to increase production in the new season. It is recommended to sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [88][90]. - Cotton: The Sino - US trade conflict is not conducive to the cotton price. The downstream demand is weak, and the new - year production is expected to be high. The cotton price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [91][92].
文字早评2025/10/20星期一：宏观金融类-20251020
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-20 02:25