Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The short - term trend of oils and fats lacks a clear driving force and is expected to be in a weak and volatile state. It is advisable to wait and see for now. Consider lightly going long at low levels after a significant pull - back. For arbitrage and option strategies, it is recommended to wait and see [31][33]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation Recent Core Events & Market Review - SPPOMA estimates that the production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 15 days of October increased by 6.86% month - on - month. ITS data shows that exports in the same period increased by 16% month - on - month [4]. - SEA data indicates that as of September, India's edible oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year reached 1.398 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. In September, India's port inventory continued to accumulate to 1.03 million tons, with palm oil inventory remaining flat, soybean oil inventory increasing significantly due to high imports, and sunflower oil inventory decreasing [4]. - This week, oils and fats lacked a clear driving force and remained volatile. Rapeseed oil declined significantly due to expectations of improved China - Canada relations and short - selling. Fundamentally, Malaysian palm oil production in September may have declined slightly, exports may have increased slightly, and inventory may have slightly accumulated. The stable spot price in the producing areas supports the palm oil price, but the lack of positive drivers, poor cost - effectiveness, and weak demand hinder its rise. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of soybean oil is not prominent. Domestic soybean oil inventory is slightly increasing, and it may continue to decline slightly later, but the inventory will not be tight. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, but overall, the inventory continues to decline marginally, supporting the rapeseed oil price [4]. International Market - Malaysian Palm Oil in October: SPPOMA estimates a 6.86% month - on - month increase in production in the first 15 days of October. With more rainfall expected in southern Peninsular Malaysia in the next two weeks, production may slightly decrease in October but still be slightly higher than the five - year average. ITS data shows a 16% month - on - month increase in exports in the first 15 days of October. Exports in October are expected to increase month - on - month but be lower than the five - year average. Inventory in October is expected to reach between 2.35 and 2.45 million tons. The recent spot price of Malaysian CPO has remained stable at around 4,450 ringgit, and the decline space of CPO may be limited in the later period [8]. - India's Situation in September: India's edible oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year as of September reached 1.398 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. Palm oil imports decreased by 14%, with cumulative imports of only 6.91 million tons. Soybean oil imports reached a record 4.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 42%. Sunflower oil imports were 2.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%, still at a relatively high level in the same period of history. It is expected that imports in September will decline slightly. In terms of inventory, India's port inventory in September continued to accumulate to 1.03 million tons, with palm oil inventory remaining flat, soybean oil inventory increasing significantly due to high imports, and sunflower oil inventory decreasing. Currently, the inventories of the three major oils are all higher than the five - year average. India's apparent consumption this year is at a moderately high level but has declined compared to the same period last year. In terms of import profit, CPO and sunflower oil occasionally have import profits, but the procurement progress has slowed down. There are also rumors that India has imported Chinese soybean oil for forward months [14]. - Trump's Statement: Trump stated on social media that China deliberately does not buy US soybeans, causing difficulties for US soybean farmers, which is an economic hostile act. In response, the US is considering terminating business relations with China in the edible oil and other trade fields. From January to August this year, China's cumulative exports of UCO reached 1.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12%. Among them, exports to the US totaled about 300,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65%. From January to July this year, the US's cumulative imports of UCO reached 1.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8%, and the quantity imported from China decreased by 43% year - on - year, with a more diversified import source [20]. Domestic Market - Palm Oil: As of October 10, 2025 (week 41), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 547,600 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 0.83%. Recently, palm oil inventory has been decreasing continuously and is at a slightly lower - than - average level in the same period of history. From January to August, domestic edible palm oil imports totaled only 1.59 million tons, lower than the same period last year and still at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The producer's quotation is stable, and the import profit inversion has narrowed, currently around - 160. According to incomplete statistics, domestic commercial purchases in October and November are about 200,000 tons +, but there are still few forward - month shipments. Attention should be paid to domestic purchases and arrivals in the later period [23]. - Soybean Oil: As of October 10, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.2651 million tons, an increase of 16,400 tons from the previous week, an increase of 1.31%. This week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.1662 million tons, and the operating rate was 59.59%. The spot market is sluggish, and downstream buyers still replenish inventory on - demand, with slow pick - up. Currently, China has not purchased US soybeans and mainly purchases South American soybeans. It is expected that there will be no shortage of domestic soybeans in the short term. The peak period of soybean arrivals in China has passed. As soybean arrivals and crushing gradually decrease later, domestic soybean oil inventory may decline, and the inflection point of domestic soybean oil inventory may occur at the end of October, followed by a gradual decline, but the inventory will not be tight [26]. - Rapeseed Oil: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 14,000 tons, and the operating rate was 3.73%, a decrease from the previous week. As of October 10, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 571,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week. Although it is still at a high level in the same period of history, the inventory is continuously declining marginally. The FOB quotation of European rapeseed oil has increased to around $1,100, and the import profit inversion of European rapeseed oil has widened to around - 1,000. There are frequent rumors in the market that China has imported rapeseed oil from Dubai and Russia. The market still has a sentiment of holding back sales and maintaining prices, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis is stable. It is expected that the inventory decline trend in coastal areas will continue. The market expects that China - Canada relations may improve, and rapeseed oil prices have declined. Currently, the fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, but overall, rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline marginally, supporting the rapeseed oil price. Attention should be paid to rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [29]. Strategy Recommendation - Logic: Malaysian palm oil production in September may have declined slightly, exports may have increased slightly, and inventory may have slightly accumulated. The stable spot price in the producing areas supports the palm oil price, but the lack of positive drivers, poor cost - effectiveness, and weak demand hinder its rise, so it will maintain a volatile state. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of soybean oil is not prominent. Domestic soybean oil inventory is slightly increasing, and it may continue to decline slightly later, but the inventory will not be tight. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, but overall, rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline marginally, supporting the rapeseed oil price [31]. - Strategy: For the unilateral strategy, due to the lack of driving force, oils and fats may pull back in the short term and are expected to be in a weak and volatile state. It is advisable to wait and see for now and consider lightly going long at low levels after a significant pull - back. For the arbitrage and option strategies, it is recommended to wait and see [33]. Part Two: Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides a large amount of data tracking on Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil production, exports, and inventory; international soybean oil market data; Indian oil supply and demand; domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil supply and demand; domestic oil spot basis; and domestic oil commercial inventory, presented in graphical form [37][44][46].
油脂周报：油脂缺乏明显驱动，短期维持震荡运行-20251020
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-10-20 02:22