宝城期货煤焦早报-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For the 2601 contract of coking coal, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is rising, and the reference view is a volatile approach. The core logic is that strong expectations still exist, and coking coal runs strongly [1]. - For the 2601 contract of coke, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, the intraday view is slightly stronger in a volatile state, and the reference view is a volatile approach. The core logic is that strong cost support leads to coke oscillating strongly [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - Production: As of the week ending October 17, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 77.9 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.7 thousand tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.6 thousand tons [5]. - Imports: Since October 8, the Ganqimaodu Port has resumed operations, and the daily number of passing vehicles has returned to around 1100 - 1300 [5]. - Demand: The combined daily average output of coke from sample coking plants and steel mills was 111.23 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.27 thousand tons [5]. - Inventory: As of the week ending October 17, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 997.37 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 38.31 thousand tons, and the coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 788.32 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.19 thousand tons [5]. - Overall: The fundamentals of coking coal lack support, but recent weather in major production areas and anti - involution factors have driven the main coking coal futures contract to maintain a strong and volatile operation [5]. Coke (J) - Production: As of the week ending October 17, the combined daily average output of coke from coking plants and steel mills was 111.23 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.27 thousand tons [6]. - Demand: The daily average output of hot metal from 247 steel mills nationwide was 240.95 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.59 thousand tons [6]. - Inventory: This week, the coke inventories of both upstream and downstream in the industrial chain have decreased. The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 57.29 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.55 thousand tons; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 639.44 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.38 thousand tons [6]. - Overall: The supply and demand of coke have both decreased, with a more obvious reduction on the supply side, and the overall inventory in the industrial chain has declined. The fundamentals are relatively neutral, and the upward driving force mainly comes from the supply support of coking coal on the cost side and the expected policy benefits [6].