Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily morning observations on various commodities, including agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy and chemical products. It analyzes the market conditions, influencing factors, and provides trading strategies for each commodity [5][7][9]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Categories Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: Macro changes increase, and the overall pressure on meal products is rising. The international soybean pressure is high, and the domestic soybean meal may face more downward pressure. It is recommended to short the 05 contract on rallies, conduct M11 - 1 positive spreads, and sell call options at high points [15][16][17]. - Sugar: The price of foreign sugar has fallen, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to open lower. The global sugar production is increasing, and the domestic sugar market is expected to follow the foreign market. It is recommended to short on rallies [17][18][20]. - Oils and Fats: The short - term trend is to maintain a shock. The palm oil export volume in Malaysia has increased, and the soybean planting progress in Brazil is ahead. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider going long on significant pullbacks [20][21][23]. - Corn/Corn Starch: The new grain spot price has rebounded, and the futures market is expected to be strongly volatile. The US corn production may be adjusted, and the domestic new corn supply is decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the 01 contract, and gradually build long - term long positions on the 05 and 07 contracts on dips [23][24][25]. - Hogs: The pressure on hog sales has improved, and the spot price is generally stable. The short - term supply is still high, and the pig price is expected to face some pressure. It is recommended to take a bearish view and conduct LH15 reverse spreads [25][26][27]. - Peanuts: Peanuts may experience a reduction in production, and the short - term trend is to be strongly volatile. The spot price is stable, and the oil mills are starting to purchase. It is recommended to go long on the 01 and 05 contracts on dips and sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [28][29][30]. - Eggs: The demand is fair, and the egg price has stabilized. The supply of laying hens is still high, and the demand is average. It is recommended to close out previous short positions [31][32][35]. - Apples: The high - quality fruit rate is average, and the fruit price is rising steadily. The price of high - quality apples is expected to be firm, and the price gap will be large. It is recommended to go long on the 11 - month contract and short the 1 - month contract [36][37][39]. - Cotton - Cotton Yarn: The new cotton purchase progress has accelerated, and the cotton price is mainly volatile. The new cotton supply is increasing, and the demand is improving slightly. It is expected that the cotton price will maintain a volatile trend [40][41][44]. Black Metals - Steel: Affected by coal mine safety accidents, the black metal sector has rebounded. The steel production is decreasing, and the demand is recovering. It is recommended to maintain a bullish view on the shock and go long on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar on dips [46][47][48]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The supply is disturbed, and there is support at the bottom. The coal mine safety supervision is strengthening, and the steel mill profit is not good. It is recommended to take profits on some long positions and go long on dips [48][49][50]. - Iron Ore: A bearish view is taken in the medium - term. The global iron ore supply is increasing, and the domestic demand is weakening. It is recommended to short in the medium - term and conduct cash - futures reverse spreads [51][52][53]. - Ferroalloys: The macro - sentiment drives the rebound, but the demand pressure still exists. The supply is high, and the demand is expected to decline. It is recommended to expect a rebound driven by the improvement of macro - sentiment, but the price will be in a bottom - shock state [53][54][55]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Precious Metals: Trump's trade stance has softened, and the risk - aversion sentiment has declined. The precious metals prices have fallen after a long - term rise. It is recommended to take profits and wait for new long - entry opportunities [59][60][61]. - Copper: The supply - side disturbances are increasing, but the long - term trend remains unchanged. The copper supply is affected, and the consumption is average. It is recommended to go long on dips and continue to hold cross - market positive spreads [61][64][65]. - Alumina: The supply - side is showing marginal changes, and the price is mainly grinding at a low level. The supply is slightly reduced, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to pay continuous attention to the supply - side changes [65][68][69]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: Pay attention to the macro - expectations this week, and the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. The macro - sentiment is improving, and the consumption is supportive. It is recommended to go long on dips [70][74][75]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The macro - panic sentiment has improved, and the alloy price can be bought on dips. The tariff panic has eased, and the demand is supportive. It is recommended to go long on dips [75][76][78]. - Zinc: The export window has opened, and attention should be paid to the export volume and frequency. The domestic inventory is decreasing, and the export window is open. It is recommended to close out some profitable short positions and short on rallies [78][79][82]. - Lead: The supply is gradually recovering, and the lead price may decline. The domestic lead supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to hold profitable short positions and short on rallies [83][84][87]. - Nickel: The inventory increase reflects an oversupply, and the nickel price is under pressure. The supply - demand surplus is difficult to reverse, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to short at the upper edge of the shock range [87][88][89]. - Stainless Steel: The weak demand tests the cost support. The price is below the cost, and the demand is not optimistic. It is expected to maintain a weak - shock pattern [91][92][93]. Energy and Chemical Products - Industrial Silicon: It is in a range - shock state, and it is recommended to sell high and buy low. The short - term supply is slightly excessive, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait for a full pullback [93][94][95]. - Polysilicon: It is expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term, and long positions should be held. The capacity integration is progressing, and the supply - demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to hold long positions [96][97][98]. - Lithium Carbonate: The demand provides support, the supply is uncertain, and the lithium price is rising. The demand is stable, and the supply has uncertainties. It is recommended to go long on dips [97][98][100]. - Tin: The short - term macro - disturbances are large, and the tin price may be under pressure. The short - term consumption is weak, and the price is in a range - shock state. It is expected that the tin price will be under pressure [100][101][102].
每日早盘观察-20251020
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-10-20 02:29