甲醇周报：基本面依旧偏弱，甲醇或偏弱震荡-20251020

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Methanol's fundamentals remain weak, and its price may continue to oscillate weakly. The decline in port methanol inventory may have limited positive impact on the spot price, and future supply and demand are unlikely to see substantial improvement [1][7][8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, the methanol futures oscillated downward. By Friday afternoon's close, the methanol weighted price was 2,286 yuan/ton, a 1.64% decrease from the previous week. In the spot market, port methanol prices were strong due to inventory reduction, while inland prices were weak due to high supply and lack of downstream support [11] 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - Production: Last week, China's methanol production was 1,983,655 tons, a decrease of 47,850 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 87.42%, a 2.36% decline from the previous week [14] - Downstream Demand: As of October 16, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream methanol products varied. The olefin industry maintained a high - level operation, the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate increased, the glacial acetic acid capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, the methane chloride capacity utilization rate decreased significantly, and the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate increased [15][17] - Inventory: As of October 15, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 359,900 tons, a 6.04% increase from the previous period. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 228,900 tons, a 98.64% increase from the previous period. The port sample inventory was 1,491,400 tons, a 3.36% decrease from the previous period [19][21] - Profit: Last week, the average weekly profit of domestic methanol samples showed differences. The profits of coal - based and coke oven gas - based methanol narrowed, while the loss of gas - based methanol improved slightly [23] 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - Supply: This week, domestic methanol device restarts may exceed overhauls. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 1,995,800 tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 87.95%, an increase from last week [30] - Downstream Demand: In the short term, the olefin industry is expected to maintain a high - level operation. The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate is expected to decline, the glacial acetic acid capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly, the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate is expected to decline, and the methane chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to decline [31][32][33] - Inventory: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to show a slight decline. The port methanol inventory is expected to rise, but the unloading speed is uncertain [33] - Overall Outlook: The improvement of methanol fundamentals is limited, and it is likely to oscillate and consolidate in the short term [34]