宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025年10月20日）-20251020

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The iron ore market's supply-demand pattern has changed, with weakening steel mill production, declining terminal ore consumption, and unresolved industrial contradictions in the steel market, leading to expected weakening demand. Meanwhile, the supply pressure is increasing due to high arrivals at domestic ports and high shipments from miners. The high-valued ore price is likely to be under pressure and decline in a high-level volatile manner, but there is resistance to the decline due to high rigid demand. The focus should be on the production situation of steel mills [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short-term view is weakly volatile, the medium-term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is the weakening supply-demand pattern and the oscillating decline of ore prices [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply-demand pattern of iron ore has changed. Steel mill production is weakening, terminal ore consumption is continuously declining, and the industrial contradictions in the steel market remain unresolved, so demand is expected to weaken. At the same time, the arrivals of ore at domestic ports are high, and miners' shipments are also at a high level. Overseas ore supply is active at high prices, and domestic ore supply has recovered, increasing the supply pressure. Currently, ore supply remains high, demand is expected to decrease, and the fundamentals of the ore market are weakening. The high-valued ore price is prone to be under pressure and run weakly, but there is resistance to the decline due to high rigid demand. It is expected to show a high-level volatile decline trend, and the focus should be on the production situation of steel mills [2]